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That annoying 43

Posted By: mamabear
Date: Friday, 7 January 2011, at 4:45 p.m.

In Response To: That annoying 43 (Stick)

When the difference between two plays is relatively small, it's often hard to pick apart the affecting factors and weight them correctly. I not only wasn't sure when I posted that 13/9 8/5 was right, I even found it conceivable 13/6 was best though even if I'd been sure it was right I still wouldn't have done it >>

The variant I found illuminating was this one, where you move one checker back from the 6 point to the 11 point. This gives O only two immediate new shots, but more importantly the danger doesn't increase much if he tries some kind of hit-and-split later on. (If he splits to the bar, it does create a direct for him but also gives us the 4s we can't enter with to hit him. I calculate that factor is decisive in .0034% of games.)

Thinking more positively, 13/9 8/5 leaves a constructive setup without stripping the midpoint. I believe this rollout is correct that 13/9 8/5 is just as good as the one-blot 13/9 11/8 even though it's done with only 2-ply play. If this statistical tie is not what you believe is correct, feel free to disagree and run a stronger-settings rollout, or just disagree.

XGID=-b---BD-C--AbDa-bc-c-b--A-:0:0:1:34:0:0:3:0:10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---BD-C--AbDa-bc-c-b--A-:0:0:1:34:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 34

1.Rollout113/9 8/5eq: +0.113
Player:
Opponent:		 52.13% (G:16.57% B:1.06%)
47.87% (G:12.91% B:0.62%)		Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.102...+0.124)
Duration: 5 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout113/9 11/8eq: +0.112 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		 52.46% (G:15.40% B:0.97%)
47.54% (G:12.56% B:0.50%)		Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.101...+0.123)
Duration: 5 minutes 50 seconds
3.Rollout113/10 13/9eq: +0.091 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		 52.16% (G:16.03% B:1.05%)
47.84% (G:13.85% B:0.79%)		Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.079...+0.103)
Duration: 6 minutes 07 seconds
4.Rollout213/6eq: +0.062 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:		 51.24% (G:14.97% B:0.86%)
48.76% (G:12.11% B:0.49%)		Conf: ± 0.031 (+0.031...+0.093)
Duration: 43.3 seconds
5.3 ply11/4eq: +0.007 (-0.107)
Player:
Opponent:		 50.37% (G:14.77% B:0.83%)
49.63% (G:14.55% B:0.61%)
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 4634737
Moves and cube decisions: 2 ply

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 4634737
Moves and cube decisions: 2 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

BTW Stick I would have cashed Pos. 3 also. Maybe I play more like a bot than I like to think I do.

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