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OLM Su 01/09/11

Posted By: Casper van der Tak
Date: Sunday, 9 January 2011, at 6:00 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Su 01/09/11 (Jason Lee)

B/23 6/5 although it is not completely clear cut for me. I think after both reasonable plays, it will go double and clear take. I think after 5/4*, the double is easier to find, which would be an OTB consideration, but not here. What 5/4 has going for it is that it takes away half the roll, and prevents XG from escaping while ahead in the race. 4 dancing rolls after the hit as well. Those are big gains. Also, with many checkers in the zone, we can look for attacking moves instead of waiting passive. Against the hit is that we don't want to leave more shots and blots against a stronger board.

What for me sways the decision in favor of 6/5 is that 5/4* hits with the wrong checker (we want to hit from the 6 or 8), and that 6/5 leaves XG 6s duplicated (both 21/15 and 8/2* are valuable). If one of these factors was different - say move XGs blot from the 15 point to the 16 point, or give us two spares on the 5 by moving one of the spares from the 6 to the 5, I'd play 5/4*.

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