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-4 pC?

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Saturday, 15 January 2011, at 1:14 a.m.

In Response To: -4 pC? (Chuck Bower)

It does not follow that 32T and 41T play well at -2P. Remember that -4P is a GG like score. Playing 32T or 41T is not only playing safe, it is bringing an attacker into the zone. -2P is like DMP. -6P is a hybrid score where gammons lost don't hurt, but gammons won are worth less than they are at GG. I haven't done a rollout of -6P yet, but I would be surprised if T was best.

Here's -2P. Up moves play relatively well because of the free drop.

32 -2P[S U2 D6 Z10 T10] <31

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 167
2 point match
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:32:0:1:0:2:10
to play 32

1.Rollout124/21 13/11eq: +0.937
Player:
Opponent:		 50.26% (G:14.77% B:0.94%)
49.74% (G:15.81% B:1.20%)		Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.935...+0.939)
Duration: 6 hours 34 minutes
2.Rollout124/22 24/21eq: +0.935 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		 49.38% (G:13.71% B:0.94%)
50.62% (G:15.63% B:1.12%)		Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.933...+0.937)
Duration: 7 hours 23 minutes
3.Rollout113/11 13/10eq: +0.931 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		 49.83% (G:16.72% B:1.18%)
50.17% (G:17.33% B:1.68%)		Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.929...+0.933)
Duration: 8 hours 24 minutes
4.Rollout124/22 13/10eq: +0.927 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		 49.82% (G:15.10% B:0.94%)
50.18% (G:16.31% B:1.23%)		Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.925...+0.929)
Duration: 7 hours 18 minutes
5.Rollout113/8eq: +0.927 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		 49.06% (G:15.48% B:1.08%)
50.94% (G:16.98% B:1.37%)		Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.925...+0.929)
Duration: 7 hours 49 minutes
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44009919
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

41 -2P[S U5 T10 $25] <31**15

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 167
2 point match
pip: 167
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-b----E-C---eE---c-e----B-:0:0:1:41:0:1:0:2:10
to play 41

1.Rollout124/23 13/9eq: +0.936
Player:
Opponent:		 49.86% (G:15.77% B:0.95%)
50.14% (G:15.95% B:1.20%)		Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.934...+0.938)
Duration: 1 day 11 hours 01 minute
2.Rollout124/23 24/20eq: +0.931 (-0.005)
Player:
Opponent:		 49.20% (G:13.16% B:0.78%)
50.80% (G:14.87% B:1.01%)		Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.929...+0.933)
Duration: 22 hours 36 minutes
3.Rollout113/8eq: +0.927 (-0.010)
Player:
Opponent:		 49.06% (G:15.47% B:1.08%)
50.94% (G:16.98% B:1.37%)		Conf: ± 0.002 (+0.925...+0.929)
Duration: 1 day 11 hours 57 minutes
4.Rollout213/9 6/5eq: +0.911 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		 50.01% (G:16.55% B:1.23%)
49.99% (G:19.65% B:2.60%)		Conf: ± 0.004 (+0.907...+0.915)
Duration: 1 day 07 hours 33 minutes
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44009919
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

2 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 44009919
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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