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Rollout - interesting

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 14 December 2006, at 6:06 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Tuesday Dec. 12th (Stick)

Did anyone consider 19/18 w/the last ace? The sick thing is it would be correct if it didn't lose that extra percent of gammons. (and it still may be correct, longer rollout to come) I guess Snowie thinks it's worth it giving me 3-1, 2-2, and 1-1 as hitters where you then get a few indirects (6-1, 6-2, 5-1, 5-2) to get a triple shot when I don't get by. Numbers that don't pass for me and wouldn't hit if you split: 2-1, 4-1, 5-1, 4-2, 3-3, 5-5, 6-6, 6-5, that's quite a few! And like I said, even if I roll the 3-1, 2-2, or 1-1 you get 8 + immediate returns. I actually prefer splitting off the 18 after seeing the bot results and analyzing it.


Match to 25, White leads 6 to 2
44
164
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 9/8 7/6 6/5(2) -1.060
0.1% 1.8% 25.9% 74.1% 67.6% 0.0%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -1.139 ±0.007. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1944 games (equiv. 125858 games), played 3-ply (precise) random seed, with race database.
2 R 19/18 7/6 6/5(2) -1.066 (-0.006)
0.0% 1.7% 26.1% 73.9% 68.4% 0.1%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -1.144 ±0.009. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 1944 games (equiv. 62914 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.
3 R 8/6 6/5(2) -1.107 (-0.047)
0.0% 2.2% 24.6% 75.4% 69.5% 0.1%
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -1.181 ±0.016. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 19051 games), played 3-ply (precise), random seed, with race database.

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