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BGonline.org Forums
ATS re^3 conundrum?
Posted By: Stick In Response To: ATS re^3 conundrum? (garyo)
Date: Monday, 17 January 2011, at 10:14 a.m.
You know your opponent's take point is his equity if he passes because taking puts the match on the line for both players. If he passes the score would be -3 -2 from his perspective giving him 40% ME. Therefore, he needs 40% GWC to take this cube.
Does he have 40%? He gets at least one blot hit 75% of the time immediately with 27/36 hitters. Out of those 27 games we'll give us ~22 games? Out of the remaining 9 games we still scrape out a win or 2, let's say 2 since I may have lowballed the 22/27 figure. That estimation has us winning 24/36 games or almost 67% of the time. Therefore, if we double our opponent should pass.
The rest you seem to know but are trying to talk yourself out of because of what could happen. You said I chose not to double noting that this could easily become too good . You said it yourself, it could become too good but it currently isn't. There are the 9 times you miss immediately where you'll be kicking yourself for not having cashed and the extra vig from his immediate re-entries and your open two point. With everything that could go sour you should cash.
how do I evaluate residual chances of winning after not doubling?
Did you mean after not doubling or after not doubling and not hitting? Either way, you're near the end of the game, put the position in a bot and play it out until you're satisfied with your overall feel for the position. You need to know how often you'll get and hit another shot.
is there some Elo difference that would change the doubling decision?
Of course. This would have to be a rather gigantic elo difference but it's possible that your opponent could play poorly enough to turn this into a ND/T or it could be a D/T right now for example.
Stick
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