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BGonline.org Forums
SuperStar Mary Hickey Redoubles Mario Sequiera in Florida
Posted By: John O'Hagan In Response To: SuperStar Mary Hickey Redoubles Mario Sequiera in Florida (Paul Weaver)
Date: Friday, 21 January 2011, at 5:26 p.m.
Does Black have a take? His basic takepoint ATS is the normal 25% minus almost half of his gammons and Mary's 8-cube takepoint is around 24%. If Mary closes her board with spares on the 6-5-4, she wins around 84%. Since she doesn't rate to come in perfectly, it's probably more like 82-83%. She covers with 22 numbers and Mario's a 70/30 dog to enter if she doesn't. We need to estimate Mario's wins in 3 sequences: 1) cover, 2) no cover - enter, and 3) no cover - fan. I'll give him 4/22 in 1), 2.5/4.2 in 2), and 3/9.8 in 3). That's over 25% wins some of which are gammons. How many g's? About 6% looks right to me. This lowers the takepoint to around 22% and cube vig should be worth 3.5% or so which makes it around 18.5%. So Black has a clear take IMO.
Should Mary redouble? Normally you don't redouble when you're 7% away from the oppt's takepoint unless you have a volatile position with lots of big market losers on tap. Do the 22 covers justify a redouble here? I don't think so. They do lose the market but not by a whole lot. Mario's gammonless takepoint (after accounting for recube vig) is in the 20-21% range and he'll have 17-18% if Mary covers.
Technically I think it's NR/T. Practically, it might be a redouble since some opponents would incorrectly pass. I think I'd still take a roll.
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