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SuperStar Mary Hickey Redoubles Mario Sequiera in Florida

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 21 January 2011, at 5:34 p.m.

In Response To: SuperStar Mary Hickey Redoubles Mario Sequiera in Florida (John O'Hagan)

Your 6% gammon estimate looks high to me since they still have 11 checkers to rip off even when they do hit and manage to get around the board safely. Also with 4 men closed out and a perfect spare distribution the win % is closer to 85% than 84% but I think your estimate of 83% since Mary's spares may not be perfect works. (I just wouldn't drop as low as 82%)

I would cube here regardless giving my opponent the chance to make a big error where at worst my error would be tiny.

Stick

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