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Yet Another EPC Question

Posted By: Maik Stiebler
Date: Monday, 24 January 2011, at 11:43 a.m.

In Response To: Yet Another EPC Question (adambulldog)

Whenever I don't think I can estimate EPC reliably, as is the case here, I fall back to a conventional count (Keith count in my case).

You could also try to borrow the adjustments from your favourite count, like here, White's second checker on the ace is penalized by two pips in Keith count, and the gaps on 4 and 5 cost 1 pip each, for a total penalty of 4. Add that to a baseline of, say, 6, for races of this length and you get a total wastage of 10.

Or do a 1-ply analysis. This would be much to awkward for me otb, but with some practice, who knows: 23,24,25,34,35,45 (pip average = 7) leave you on average about as much worse off than a three-rolls position as 62, 63, 64, 65 (pip average=9.5) leave you better off. Let's say this cancels and the total pip average of all those rolls is 8, than you have an average wastage of 22-(20-8)=10 from those 20 rolls. Then there are the 11 rolls containing a one. Let's say the average wastage after those is 7. Then there are 66,55,44 (average pips=20), which leave you with a 5/3 rolls position on average: Wastage = 35/3+1-(20-20)=13, and 22 and 33... hmm, no idea, somewhere between a wastage of 7 and 10, doesn't matter much anyway. Average everything and you get an epc of 9.25, which kind of gives away that every estimate I made in this paragraph was more or less gnubg-informed ;-)

Messages In This Thread

• Yet Another EPC Question
  adambulldog -- Monday, 24 January 2011, at 9:54 a.m.
  • Yet Another EPC Question
    Maik Stiebler -- Monday, 24 January 2011, at 11:43 a.m.
  • Yet Another EPC Question
    Stick -- Monday, 24 January 2011, at 2:45 p.m.
  • Yet Another EPC Question
    Joe Russell -- Tuesday, 25 January 2011, at 3:41 a.m.