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Opening 51 at 4 away 2 away rollout

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 1:23 a.m.

In Response To: Opening 51 at 4 away 2 away rollout (Stick)

After slotting with an opening 51 you're only supposed to cover the 5pt on the immediate sequence ~39% of the time.

Concur. The simple calculation is 22*23 / 36^2 = 39.04%. Add 51$-53P-22 and 51$-62R-22. (I'm not sure whether to count 51$-52S-22 or 51$-66B-44 the other way, so I'll offset those to each other.) That nudges it up to 39.24% (though I might have missed something).

That assumes that we don't count hitting back with 33 or 11 as "covering" the 5pt.

It may also be worth noting that most of the time when you are not hit and your next roll is 31 or 11, you will essentially transpose anyway, having risked the big 4 shot for nothing. Otherwise, opening 51$ would be best for money.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

• NM Masters Final GG early game 33
  neilkaz -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 3:00 a.m.
  • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
    Michael Petch -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 3:44 a.m.
  • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
    Michael Petch -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 3:50 a.m.
    • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
      Michael Petch -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 3:54 a.m.
  • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
    Petter Bengtsson -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 3:54 a.m.
    • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 4:11 a.m.
      • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
        Leonardo Jerkovic -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 10:04 a.m.
  • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
    higonefive -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 8:13 a.m.
    • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
      higonefive -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 4:07 p.m.
  • 63R-11N-21R-64P-21S-64H-21H-61S-66D-33-g
    Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 9:33 a.m.
    • The sequence to get here
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 7:05 p.m.
      • 51$-61P-64P-65D-117-62D-33-g
        Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 8:20 p.m.
        • underlining
          David Rockwell -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 8:26 p.m.
          • underlining
            Nack Ballard -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 8:44 p.m.
            • underlining
              David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 2:09 p.m.
              • underlining
                Nack Ballard -- Thursday, 3 February 2011, at 5:49 a.m.
                • underlining
                  Michael Petch -- Thursday, 3 February 2011, at 6:51 a.m.
                • underlining
                  Ian Shaw -- Thursday, 3 February 2011, at 11:37 p.m.
                  • underlining
                    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 3:02 a.m.
                    • underlining
                      Michael Petch -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 5:20 a.m.
                      • underlining
                        Nack Ballard -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 5:31 a.m.
                        • underlining
                          Michael Petch -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 5:54 a.m.
                          • underlining
                            Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 7:34 a.m.
                            • underlining
                              Michael Petch -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 7:55 a.m.
                              • underlining
                                Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 7:58 a.m.
                            • underlining
                              Michael Petch -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 8:20 a.m.
                              • underlining
                                Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 8:25 a.m.
                                • underlining
                                  Michael Petch -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 8:29 a.m.
                              • XP vs Vista (Firefox/IE)
                                Michael Petch -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 9:18 a.m.
                                • XP vs Vista (Firefox/IE)
                                  Ian Shaw -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 10:39 a.m.
                                  • XP vs Vista (Firefox/IE)
                                    Michael Petch -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 11:11 a.m.
                                  • XP vs Vista (Firefox/IE)
                                    Nack Ballard -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 4:14 p.m.
                                    • XP vs Vista (Firefox/IE)
                                      Ian Shaw -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 11:00 p.m.
                                      • XP vs Vista (Firefox/IE)
                                        Michael Petch -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 11:40 p.m.
                                      • XP vs Vista (Firefox/IE)
                                        Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 5 February 2011, at 5:04 a.m.
                                        • Excel 2007/Unicode/XP
                                          Michael Petch -- Saturday, 5 February 2011, at 7:07 a.m.
                                          • Excel 2007/Unicode/XP
                                            Nack Ballard -- Saturday, 5 February 2011, at 7:47 a.m.
                                          • Unicode Fonts and Excel 2007/2010
                                            Michael Petch -- Saturday, 5 February 2011, at 9:08 a.m.
                    • Ah, Depends on the Browser
                      Michael Petch -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 5:29 a.m.
                      • Ah, Depends on the Browser
                        Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 3:00 p.m.
                        • Ah, Depends on the Browser
                          Casper van der Tak -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 3:06 p.m.
                        • Ah, Depends on the Browser
                          Michael Petch -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 8:32 p.m.
                          • Ah, Depends on the Browser
                            Daniel Murphy -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 8:53 p.m.
              • underlining
                Rich Munitz -- Thursday, 3 February 2011, at 6:59 a.m.
          • underlining
            Michael Petch -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 10:59 a.m.
            • underlining
              Michael Petch -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 11:28 a.m.
          • underlining
            Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 4:33 p.m.
            • underlining
              Ian Shaw -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 11:45 p.m.
      • Opening 51 at 4 away 2 away rollout
        Stick -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 10:46 p.m.
        • Opening 51 at 4 away 2 away rollout
          neilkaz -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 12:00 a.m.
          • Opening 51 at 4 away 2 away rollout
            Stick -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 12:24 a.m.
            • Opening 51 at 4 away 2 away rollout
              Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 1:23 a.m.
          • Opening 51 at 4 away 2 away rollout
            Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 1:26 a.m.
        • Opening 51 at 4 away 2 away rollout
          David Rockwell -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 12:51 a.m.
          • Opening 51 at 4 away 2 away rollout
            Stick -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 1:12 a.m.
  • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 11:02 a.m.
    • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
      Michael Petch -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 11:12 a.m.
      • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
        Michael Petch -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 11:17 a.m.
      • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 11:34 a.m.
  • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
    Stein Kulseth -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 11:25 a.m.
  • NM Masters Final GG early game 33
    Stick -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 2:06 p.m.
  • Thoughts OTB
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 5:10 p.m.
    • RO
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 8:41 p.m.
      • RO
        Stick -- Tuesday, 1 February 2011, at 10:41 p.m.
      • RO
        Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 4:46 p.m.