[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Projected percentage for Z

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Thursday, 3 February 2011, at 8:15 p.m.

In Response To: Question for Neil (Paul Weaver)

I notice that all four plays give the guy playing opening 43 a winning % under 50%. Wonder if opening 43 makes you a dog at DMP. Should you pass at -1-2 PC?

If you go to bgonline.org and navigate, you'll see that the winning chances for D, Z, S and U, respectively, are 49.81%, 50.02%, 49.85% and 49.83% in the (46k GnuBG) money rollout, whereas they are 49.85%, 50.07%, 49.81% and 49.95% in the (46**28 GnuBG) dmp rollout. In table form:

...money...dmp
D..49.81..49.85
Z..50.02..50.07
S..49.85..49.81
U..49.83..49.95

If the same differentials are applied to Neil's "+46 rollout, the winning percentages in the dmp column below are projected:

...money...dmp
D..49.82..49.86
Z..49.95..50.00
S..49.95..49.91
U..49.77..49.89

For example, the winning percentage at dmp for Z is 50.00%, give or take something for variance and bot perspective.

If Stick posts his XG 3-ply rollout results of opening 43 for money and DMP here (I know only the margins, not the bg/g/w details), we will have more data from which to project.

Nack

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response
Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:
 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.