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Rollouts from Stick

Posted By: David Rockwell
Date: Friday, 4 February 2011, at 12:17 a.m.

In Response To: Eleven Positions from MCG vs BJP on GG (Paul Weaver)

I believe Stick is out dominating and destroying somewhere. I don't know the details other than to say he has won every day. He asked me to post these rollout results for him in his absence.

Position 1

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 155 7 point match pip: 160 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aa-BBAC-----cD--bc-bab-AB-:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:7:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	61.68% (G: 29.01% B: 2.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	38.32% (G: 9.77% B: 0.83%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	62.24% (G: 29.49% B: 2.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.76% (G: 9.86% B: 1.49%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.444
Double:	+0.936
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.641 (-0.005)
Double/Take:	+0.646
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.354)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.011 (+0.630...+0.652)
Confidence Double:	± 0.018 (+0.628...+0.664)
Double Decision confidence:	68.5%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 41 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Position 2

	is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 160 7 point match pip: 147 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aa-BB-C-B---bDab-c-e---AA-:0:0:-1:55:0:1:0:7:10
to play 55

1.	Rollout1	Bar/20 10/5(2) 6/1*	eq: -0.171
	Player: Opponent: 46.59% (G:15.36% B:0.67%) 53.41% (G:19.43% B:1.40%) Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.181...-0.161) Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
2.	Rollout1	Bar/20 11/1* 6/1	eq: -0.195 (-0.024)
	Player: Opponent: 45.73% (G:14.86% B:0.59%) 54.27% (G:17.93% B:0.86%) Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.205...-0.185) Duration: 1 hour 11 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Position 5

	is Player 2 score: 1 pip: 131 7 point match pip: 150 score: 1 is Player 1
XGID=-a--BBC-Ba-AbC-a-b-cc-b-B-:0:0:1:51:1:1:0:7:10
to play 51

1.	Rollout1	24/23 6/1*	eq: -0.300
	Player: Opponent: 44.59% (G:15.66% B:0.94%) 55.41% (G:25.29% B:2.27%) Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.312...-0.288) Duration: 54 minutes 29 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/5	eq: -0.301 (-0.001)
	Player: Opponent: 42.88% (G:13.14% B:0.66%) 57.12% (G:18.10% B:1.30%) Conf: ± 0.011 (-0.312...-0.290) Duration: 48 minutes 09 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Position 7

	is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 135 7 point match pip: 139 score: 1 is Player 1
XGID=-a--B-CCB-a-bD-a-c-e--b-A-:0:0:-1:11:1:2:0:7:10
to play 11

1.	Rollout1	24/22 6/5(2)	eq: -0.164
	Player: Opponent: 47.81% (G:11.65% B:0.56%) 52.19% (G:14.09% B:0.60%) Conf: ± 0.009 (-0.173...-0.155) Duration: 56 minutes 20 seconds
2.	Rollout1	8/7(2) 6/5(2)	eq: -0.168 (-0.005)
	Player: Opponent: 47.20% (G:15.53% B:0.69%) 52.80% (G:15.86% B:0.99%) Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.178...-0.158) Duration: 54 minutes 11 seconds
3.	Rollout2	15/13 6/5(2)	eq: -0.183 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 46.30% (G:12.84% B:0.46%) 53.70% (G:11.75% B:0.45%) Conf: ± 0.019 (-0.202...-0.164) Duration: 12 minutes 07 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Position 8

	is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 126 7 point match pip: 129 score: 1 is Player 1
XGID=---aBBCBB---bC-b-c-cb-b-A-:0:0:-1:33:1:2:0:7:10
to play 33

1.	Rollout1	13/7(2)	eq: -0.113
	Player: Opponent: 48.73% (G:15.81% B:1.00%) 51.27% (G:13.17% B:0.47%) Conf: ± 0.009 (-0.122...-0.104) Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes
2.	Rollout1	10/4(2)	eq: -0.132 (-0.019)
	Player: Opponent: 47.30% (G:15.57% B:0.67%) 52.70% (G:11.75% B:0.48%) Conf: ± 0.007 (-0.139...-0.125) Duration: 1 hour 03 minutes
1 9072 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Position 9

	is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 145 7 point match pip: 152 score: 3 is Player 1
XGID=-a----EAD---dC-b-b-cc-B---:0:0:-1:11:3:2:0:7:10
to play 11

1.	Rollout1	24/22 10/9(2)	eq: +0.557
	Player: Opponent: 66.26% (G:9.78% B:0.44%) 33.74% (G:7.27% B:0.39%) Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.547...+0.567) Duration: 44 minutes 15 seconds
2.	Rollout1	10/9 6/4 5/4	eq: +0.534 (-0.023)
	Player: Opponent: 64.53% (G:13.20% B:0.58%) 35.47% (G:8.16% B:0.49%) Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.523...+0.545) Duration: 43 minutes 25 seconds
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Position 10

	is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 124 7 point match pip: 118 score: 3 is Player 1
XGID=-aaB-BDBC-------cbAbbbAb--:1:-1:-1:53:3:2:0:7:10
to play 53

1.	Rollout1	24/21 8/3*	eq: +0.141
	Player: Opponent: 46.25% (G:17.60% B:0.68%) 53.75% (G:21.30% B:3.58%) Conf: ± 0.009 (+0.132...+0.150) Duration: 10 minutes 25 seconds
2.	Rollout1	24/16	eq: +0.123 (-0.018)
	Player: Opponent: 45.18% (G:14.05% B:1.04%) 54.82% (G:16.35% B:1.17%) Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.111...+0.135) Duration: 15 minutes 56 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Position 11

	is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 79 7 point match pip: 124 score: 3 is Player 1
XGID=--aBBBBBC----------dbbcbaB:1:-1:-1:11:3:2:0:7:10
to play 11

1.	Rollout1	6/5 6/4 3/2	eq: -0.977
	Player: Opponent: 9.64% (G:0.97% B:0.10%) 90.36% (G:14.19% B:0.93%) Conf: ± 0.010 (-0.987...-0.967) Duration: 5 minutes 48 seconds
2.	Rollout1	6/5(2) 3/1	eq: -1.008 (-0.032)
	Player: Opponent: 5.67% (G:0.21% B:0.00%) 94.33% (G:9.18% B:0.37%) Conf: ± 0.009 (-1.017...-0.999) Duration: 5 minutes 50 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Eleven Positions from MCG vs BJP on GG
  Paul Weaver -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 4:50 p.m.
  • Eleven Positions from MCG vs BJP on GG
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 7:07 p.m.
  • Eleven Positions from MCG vs BJP on GG
    Stick -- Wednesday, 2 February 2011, at 9:13 p.m.
    • Eleven Positions from MCG vs BJP on GG
      Timothy Chow -- Thursday, 3 February 2011, at 1:51 a.m.
    • For Chuck
      Sam Pottle -- Thursday, 3 February 2011, at 3:37 a.m.
  • Rollouts from Stick
    David Rockwell -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 12:17 a.m.
    • Rollouts from Stick
      Timothy Chow -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 1:01 a.m.
      • Rollouts from Stick
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 7:59 a.m.
        • Rollouts from Stick
          Timothy Chow -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 5:34 p.m.
    • Rollouts from Stick
      Matt Cohn-Geier -- Friday, 4 February 2011, at 7:56 a.m.
      • Rollouts from Stick
        Turz -- Friday, 11 February 2011, at 1:17 p.m.