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Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Friday, 15 December 2006, at 6:31 a.m.

In Response To: Another Blunder for Me? (Stick)

Seems my blunder made for good company. I played 23/18(2) 21/16 9/4. I didn't think leaving the shots to be worth it (esp. since I was abandoning my anchor) so I weenied with 9/4. I also saw an 'easy' route to victory since White has no outfield control I can just tidy up, sit back, and pick them off as they try to come around.

Money Game
125
167
Board image courtesy of GO-Figure

# Ply Move Equity
1 R 21/16 13/8 8/3(2) 0.235
0.8% 16.4% 53.8% 46.2% 19.7% 1.0%
Live cube rollout: 0.255
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: 0.041 ±0.027, - live cube: 0.255 ±0.046. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 10226 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
2 R 21/16 16/11(2) 9/4 0.142 (-0.094)
0.7% 13.4% 49.6% 50.4% 16.4% 0.9%
Live cube rollout: 0.144
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.038 ±0.030, - live cube: 0.144 ±0.040. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 8402 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.
3 R 23/18(2) 21/16 9/4 0.122 (-0.114)
0.5% 10.2% 50.9% 49.1% 18.5% 0.3%
Live cube rollout: 0.144
95% confidence interval: - money cubeless eq.: -0.064 ±0.025, - live cube: 0.144 ±0.032. Rollout settings: Full rollout, 324 games (equiv. 10033 games), played 3-ply (precise), cube 3-ply, settlement 0.550 at 16 pts, random seed, with race database.

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