Thank you very much for insightful comments.
As falafel said, I wanted to know the reason why 16 and 11 is better than 14. I didn't really think of slotting play.
If a white checker on 10 point is not exist, I will definitely play 13/11 as it produces a nice builder linked with 16p and 13p. Because of that checker, I was worried about being hit by ace and played 16/14, but how painful that ace shot can be? Yes, it can be painful with 11, 14, and 16 but not with 12, 13 and 15. You will actually gain by staying on 16p if white rolls 12 or 13. So ace shot is not really painful and the merit of 13/11 stands.
Falafel told me 13/11 is "free shot" so I checked with XG. I compared two positions. First one is running to 14, the other one is stopped at 16 but not playing other deuce(illegal play). An equity after each play was about same. I wouldn't gain or lose by playing 16/14 with deuce. It helps me understanding position a lot better. 13/11 is acutally a free shot.
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| XGID=-a-aB-D-C---bD-a-cbd--B-a-:0:0:1:62:8:6:0:11:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 62 | |||||
| 1. | Rollout1 | 22/16 13/11 | eq: +0.026 | |||
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| 2. | Rollout2 | 13/5 | eq: +0.002 (-0.024) | |||
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| * 3. | Rollout3 | 22/14 | eq: -0.027 (-0.053) | |||
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| 1 Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply. 528 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 2 Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply. 527 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply 3 Truncated at 11 moves using 3 ply. 326 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 9584 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | ||||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross