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The other field goal

Posted By: Steve Mellen
Date: Monday, 7 February 2011, at 8:07 p.m.

In Response To: The other field goal (Sam Pottle)

This seems close but it is probably correct to go for it, particularly with a wounded secondary. If you go for it and fail, Pittsburgh needs about 70 yards in order to kick a tying field goal. If you take the FG, Pittsburgh receives the kickoff and needs about 70 yards in order to score a winning touchdown. There are additional complicating factors, of course, but the biggest factor should be the fact that when you go for it, 25% of the time or thereabouts you win the game immediately. Just as in backgammon, giving yourself a bunch of immediate winning rolls generally trumps more subtle long-term differences.

I've noticed a particular mental block among those who take the conventional approach to these situations (including Belichick's famous 4th-down call against Indy, among others) These people basically assume the initial attempt will fail (even where it has a high probability of success, like a 4th-and-1) and then spend their entire argument focusing on which scenario turns out better in that subset of cases. "You have to punt, because if you go for it and fail, you've given Peyton Manning a short field to work with." Yes, that's right, but you might not fail!!

Messages In This Thread

• OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
  Adam Versaw -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 4:09 p.m.
  • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 6:42 p.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      Adam Versaw -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 6:51 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 7:18 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 8:14 p.m.
  • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
    Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:13 a.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 3:33 a.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:57 a.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      neilkaz -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 3:52 a.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Adam Versaw -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:34 a.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 5:07 a.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      Michael Nielsen -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 1:03 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:10 p.m.
        • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
          Michael Nielsen -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:37 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:50 p.m.
      • OT - punt
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 10:35 p.m.
    • The other field goal
      Sam Pottle -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:06 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        neilkaz -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:15 p.m.
        • The other field goal
          Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 5:38 p.m.
          • The last field goal - Chuck??
            Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 8:40 p.m.
            • The last field goal - Chuck??
              Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 8:45 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:39 p.m.
        • The other field goal
          Bob Koca -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 10:03 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:48 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        Steve Mellen -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 8:07 p.m.
      • NOT close
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 7:44 p.m.
        • NOT close
          Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 8:13 p.m.
          • NOT close
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 9:03 p.m.
            • NOT close
              Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 10:22 p.m.
        • VERY OT (Some Zeus questions and comments)
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 8:45 p.m.
          • let's make a deal -- OT
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 9:52 p.m.
            • let's make a deal -- OT
              Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 4:30 a.m.
            • Break even point
              Adam Versaw -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 3:35 p.m.
            • anyone else care to weigh in?
              Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 5:44 p.m.
              • I will in much detail later..am at work.. too hard to compose detailed thoughts
                neilkaz -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 6:26 p.m.
                • OK, I'll wait
                  Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 6:37 p.m.
            • let's make a deal -- OT
              Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 8:48 p.m.
            • Your data..OT
              neilkaz -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 11:45 p.m.
            • Data from the 5, 10 or 30 yard line..OT
              neilkaz -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 11:48 p.m.
              • Data from the 5, 10 or 30 yard line..OT
                Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 10 February 2011, at 12:44 a.m.
            • cross-check of (nearly) independent models
              Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 10 February 2011, at 12:35 a.m.
        • NOT close
          Sam Pottle -- Friday, 11 February 2011, at 5:09 a.m.
          • record
            Chuck Bower -- Friday, 11 February 2011, at 4:48 p.m.
    • Call was close (and be careful of results playing)
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 7:00 p.m.