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VERY OT (Some Zeus questions and comments)

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 8:45 p.m.

In Response To: NOT close (Chuck Bower)

Chuck, if you don't mind, let me ask some questions about where and how Zeus gets it stats, noting that from talking to a few football bettors that I know, they think it considerably less likely to be successful on 4th downs, than does Zeus, from your writings here.

So, what chance does Zeus give the Packers of scoring the TD on 4th and goal from the 5?

I assume stats like that are from an aggregate of many attempts over the years on 4th and goal from the 5 (maybe extrapolation of all 4th and goal and somewhat short attempts) rather than on 4th and 5 from anywhere on the field and of course, rather than just making 5 yards on any play.

Of course, back to the game decision. Scoring a TD (is it maybe 30% to score on 4th and goal from the 5?) ices the game.. ie clearly more than 99% to win. Failing leaves the Steelers needing 95 yards to win with a TD and maybe 60-65 yards for decent chances to tie with FG, whereas taking the FG (98-99% isnt it) leaves them likely needing 70 yards (maybe a bit less) (assuming squib) to score the TD.

A slight factor is that by kicking FG now, the Pack still can win with a FG after the Steelers score, but that is a big very long parlay.

The whole problem with kicking is that you only lead by 6 and still almost always lose to a TD in return, whereas if you go for it, you win at least 99% as you lead by 10. If you go for it and miss, you still lose to the TD, but they will have further to go (maybe 25 yards on average) and the game is only tied if they get the FG.

Yeah..I can see where kicking is an 11% error, but I'm very curious as to where and how your 4th down stats and particularily 4th and goal are derived.

thx .. neilkaz ..

Messages In This Thread

• OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
  Adam Versaw -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 4:09 p.m.
  • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 6:42 p.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      Adam Versaw -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 6:51 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 7:18 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 8:14 p.m.
  • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
    Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:13 a.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 3:33 a.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:57 a.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      neilkaz -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 3:52 a.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Adam Versaw -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:34 a.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 5:07 a.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      Michael Nielsen -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 1:03 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:10 p.m.
        • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
          Michael Nielsen -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:37 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:50 p.m.
      • OT - punt
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 10:35 p.m.
    • The other field goal
      Sam Pottle -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:06 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        neilkaz -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:15 p.m.
        • The other field goal
          Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 5:38 p.m.
          • The last field goal - Chuck??
            Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 8:40 p.m.
            • The last field goal - Chuck??
              Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 8:45 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:39 p.m.
        • The other field goal
          Bob Koca -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 10:03 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:48 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        Steve Mellen -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 8:07 p.m.
      • NOT close
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 7:44 p.m.
        • NOT close
          Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 8:13 p.m.
          • NOT close
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 9:03 p.m.
            • NOT close
              Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 10:22 p.m.
        • VERY OT (Some Zeus questions and comments)
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 8:45 p.m.
          • let's make a deal -- OT
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 9:52 p.m.
            • let's make a deal -- OT
              Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 4:30 a.m.
            • Break even point
              Adam Versaw -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 3:35 p.m.
            • anyone else care to weigh in?
              Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 5:44 p.m.
              • I will in much detail later..am at work.. too hard to compose detailed thoughts
                neilkaz -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 6:26 p.m.
                • OK, I'll wait
                  Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 6:37 p.m.
            • let's make a deal -- OT
              Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 8:48 p.m.
            • Your data..OT
              neilkaz -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 11:45 p.m.
            • Data from the 5, 10 or 30 yard line..OT
              neilkaz -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 11:48 p.m.
              • Data from the 5, 10 or 30 yard line..OT
                Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 10 February 2011, at 12:44 a.m.
            • cross-check of (nearly) independent models
              Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 10 February 2011, at 12:35 a.m.
        • NOT close
          Sam Pottle -- Friday, 11 February 2011, at 5:09 a.m.
          • record
            Chuck Bower -- Friday, 11 February 2011, at 4:48 p.m.
    • Call was close (and be careful of results playing)
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 7:00 p.m.