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Rollout Result Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 12:06 a.m.

In Response To: Redoubling Decision at -8-4 (Paul Weaver)

It is such an incredible rush for me as White to win the match with this game the 14% of the time I win a gammon! You feel so damn clever when you pull it off, making it right for me to redouble, even when the rollout says it is wrong. This vig is not something the bots take into consideration when presenting their rollout data. I hate to admit that I missed this redouble. It was hard for me to see that White wins about 40%.

In the actual game, I lost a gammon owning the cube on 2. It would have been much more interesting and exciting to lose a gammon with the opponent owning the cube on 4.

	is Player 2 score: 5 pip: 127 9 point match pip: 148 score: 1 is Player 1
XGID=-b-C-CD------Baa-c-c-bbaAB:1:1:1:00:1:5:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	39.58% (G: 14.17% B: 2.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	60.42% (G: 31.39% B: 6.42%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	40.06% (G: 14.16% B: 3.82%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	59.94% (G: 32.73% B: 7.47%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	-0.339
Redouble:	+0.260
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.175 (-0.086)
Redouble/Take:	+0.260
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.740)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.021 (+0.154...+0.196)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.026 (+0.234...+0.287)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 52 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Redoubling Decision at -8-4
  Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 3:38 a.m.
  • Redoubling Decision at -8-4
    DJansen -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 5:00 a.m.
  • Redoubling Decision at -8-4
    Michael Petch -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 5:54 a.m.
    • Redoubling Decision at -8-4
      Michael Petch -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 6:00 a.m.
  • Redoubling Decision at -8-4
    ah_clem -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 2:47 p.m.
  • Redoubling Decision at -8-4
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 4:31 p.m.
  • Redoubling Decision at -8-4
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 6:03 p.m.
    • Redoubling Decision at -8-4
      Henrik Bukkjaer -- Thursday, 10 February 2011, at 12:24 a.m.
  • Rollout Result Posted
    Paul Weaver -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 12:06 a.m.
    • Rollout Result Posted
      Stanley E. Richards -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 12:19 a.m.