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Break even point

Posted By: Adam Versaw
Date: Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 3:35 p.m.

In Response To: let's make a deal -- OT (Chuck Bower)

What percentage of 4th down plays to they have to score a touchdown in order for it to be correct to go for it. I called this an error during game but nobody paid attention. I figured they only had around 25% -30% chance to score. 40% is surprising. I prefer trailing by 6 with ball on my own 30. 70 yards to win. Plus this ignores the potential kick return (Is there any significant chance of returning a squib kick?) Trailing by 3 and having to go approx 60 yards for a field goal which you aren't guaranteed to make and if you do you have 50% winning chances. Or going 90 yards for TD....

Messages In This Thread

• OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
  Adam Versaw -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 4:09 p.m.
  • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 6:42 p.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      Adam Versaw -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 6:51 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 7:18 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Daniel Murphy -- Sunday, 6 February 2011, at 8:14 p.m.
  • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
    Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:13 a.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 3:33 a.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:57 a.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      neilkaz -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 3:52 a.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Adam Versaw -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:34 a.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 5:07 a.m.
    • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
      Michael Nielsen -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 1:03 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:10 p.m.
        • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
          Michael Nielsen -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:37 p.m.
      • OT packers Steelers. Chuck, who will outcoach?
        Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 2:50 p.m.
      • OT - punt
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 10:35 p.m.
    • The other field goal
      Sam Pottle -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:06 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        neilkaz -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:15 p.m.
        • The other field goal
          Seth -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 5:38 p.m.
          • The last field goal - Chuck??
            Gregg Cattanach -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 8:40 p.m.
            • The last field goal - Chuck??
              Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 8:45 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        Bill Riles -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:39 p.m.
        • The other field goal
          Bob Koca -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 10:03 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        Daniel Murphy -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 4:48 p.m.
      • The other field goal
        Steve Mellen -- Monday, 7 February 2011, at 8:07 p.m.
      • NOT close
        Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 7:44 p.m.
        • NOT close
          Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 8:13 p.m.
          • NOT close
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 9:03 p.m.
            • NOT close
              Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 10:22 p.m.
        • VERY OT (Some Zeus questions and comments)
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 8:45 p.m.
          • let's make a deal -- OT
            Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 9:52 p.m.
            • let's make a deal -- OT
              Joe Russell -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 4:30 a.m.
            • Break even point
              Adam Versaw -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 3:35 p.m.
            • anyone else care to weigh in?
              Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 5:44 p.m.
              • I will in much detail later..am at work.. too hard to compose detailed thoughts
                neilkaz -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 6:26 p.m.
                • OK, I'll wait
                  Chuck Bower -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 6:37 p.m.
            • let's make a deal -- OT
              Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 8:48 p.m.
            • Your data..OT
              neilkaz -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 11:45 p.m.
            • Data from the 5, 10 or 30 yard line..OT
              neilkaz -- Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 11:48 p.m.
              • Data from the 5, 10 or 30 yard line..OT
                Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 10 February 2011, at 12:44 a.m.
            • cross-check of (nearly) independent models
              Chuck Bower -- Thursday, 10 February 2011, at 12:35 a.m.
        • NOT close
          Sam Pottle -- Friday, 11 February 2011, at 5:09 a.m.
          • record
            Chuck Bower -- Friday, 11 February 2011, at 4:48 p.m.
    • Call was close (and be careful of results playing)
      Chuck Bower -- Tuesday, 8 February 2011, at 7:00 p.m.