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Five Rollouts Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 4:17 p.m.

In Response To: Peever vs Kenji: 2-cube, 4-cube, 8-cube in 9pt Match (Paul Weaver)

Congratulations to Kenji (shimohei) for his perfect cube handling in all five positions from the same game. Congratulations, also, to Kenji for winning the game and the match.

One little known fact about Kenji: In 2010, Kenji had an incredible match record (12-1) against World #1 Mochy in long important matches. Kenji also won six 9pters in a row against me in 2010. Addtionally, Kenji won dozens and dozens of matches online against Falafel last year. Finally, Kenji had five second place finishes in big tournaments in 2010.

Thanks to Mr. Stick for rolling out these five positions and sending them to me.

Position 1.





is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 159
9 point match
pip: 181
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=-b--aAC-C---bE---c-eb-B--A:0:0:-1:00:4:2:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 61.00% (G: 24.37% B: 1.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.00% (G: 7.48% B: 0.41%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.97% (G: 24.77% B: 1.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.03% (G: 7.59% B: 0.54%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.401
Double:+0.905
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.693
Double/Take:+0.671 (-0.022)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.307)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.014 (+0.679...+0.707)
Confidence Double: ± 0.016 (+0.655...+0.687)
Double Decision confidence: 97.9%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 5 hours 21 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: eXtremeGammon

Position 2.





is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 151
9 point match
pip: 171
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=-a--aAC-Ca--bE-A-c-eb-B---:0:0:-1:00:4:2:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 61.34% (G: 24.92% B: 1.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.66% (G: 7.31% B: 0.49%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.50% (G: 25.17% B: 1.11%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.50% (G: 7.30% B: 0.56%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.415
Double:+0.942
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.722
Double/Take:+0.705 (-0.017)
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.278)
Best Cube action: No Double / Take
Rollout details
7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.012 (+0.709...+0.734)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+0.691...+0.718)
Double Decision confidence: 96.3%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 7 hours 16 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: eXtremeGammon

Position 3.





is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 140
9 point match
pip: 174
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=-a---AC-Da--bD-a-c-eb-BA--:0:0:-1:00:4:2:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 63.25% (G: 23.75% B: 1.08%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.75% (G: 6.71% B: 0.44%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.38% (G: 23.98% B: 0.99%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.62% (G: 6.69% B: 0.50%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.447
Double:+1.000
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.765 (-0.007)
Double/Take:+0.772
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.228)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.009 (+0.756...+0.774)
Confidence Double: ± 0.010 (+0.761...+0.782)
Double Decision confidence: 82.2%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 8 hours 03 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: eXtremeGammon

Position 4.





is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 33
9 point match
pip: 39
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=aBCCCB------------------h-:1:1:1:00:4:2:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 79.17% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.83% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 79.34% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 20.66% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.583
Redouble:+1.217
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.808 (-0.152)
Redouble/Take:+0.961
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.039)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.002 (+0.806...+0.811)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.004 (+0.957...+0.964)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 4.7 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: eXtremeGammon

Position 5.





is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 5
9 point match
pip: 11
score: 4

is Player 1
XGID=---B-A------------------e-:2:-1:-1:00:4:2:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 42.32% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 57.68% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 42.32% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 57.68% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:-0.154
Redouble:+0.184
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.033 (-0.158)
Redouble/Take:+0.191
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.809)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 21140344
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.000 (+0.033...+0.033)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.000 (+0.191...+0.191)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 0.2 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.20, MET: eXtremeGammon

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