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5a7a recube action

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Wednesday, 9 February 2011, at 9:33 p.m.

In Response To: 5a7a recube action (Timothy Chow)

BLue has to shake two sixes before his board crunches. Since it'll take three rolls (ignoring doubles) and a six happens about one in three rolls odds are good that Blue will escape. For money I think I'd redouble.

But blue has some real gammon chances and a gammon takes him to Crawford. Meanwhile a re-re-cube to 8 "wastes" a bunch of points for blue. I'd roll.

From White's perspective, there are plenty of winning opportunities, but a large number of losses are gammons. The thing is, those gammon losses with the cube turned only make the difference between losing the match now or being 7-away Crawford, which is less than 10% to win. I think white has to gulp and take the cube here.

So, ND/T is my analysis.

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