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BGonline.org Forums
65R-65R-65R-44P-51
Posted By: Stick In Response To: 65R-65R-65R-44P-51 (Paul Weaver)
Date: Thursday, 10 February 2011, at 2:05 p.m.
If you have ever studied whether or not to slot with an opening 51 you will be familiar with how often you are missed and cover if you slot the 5 point. It's true that there are minor differences here because if you slot the 5 point and are missed you should cover with 22 by playing 13/5 whereas with most 3rd roll situations you would not cover with 22. Also, in this instance if missed your 54 would be played by making the ace point whereas on the 3rd roll of the game the opponent often has yet to split his back checkers. Lastly, some of our covering numbers here cough up another blot like 61 or possibly 63 whereas on the third roll of the game we'd likely be splitting our back checkers with the other half of the roll.
So here if we slot and are missed we cover with 24 numbers. [11 22 33 44 21 31 41 51 61 32 62 43 53 63] Four of those numbers cough up a different blot and many numbers leave indirects in the outfield. Of the 12 non covering numbers, [55 66 42 52 54 64 65], four of them will play completely safe next turn, 52 by making the 3pt and 54 by pointing on the ace point. Slotting the 5pt leaves 15 immediate shots.
If we slot the bar point we leave 17 immediate shots opposed to 15 but we clean up that blot in some form when missed with [11 22 33 55 66 21 31 41 51 61 32 42 62 43 63 54 64 65] or 31 numbers compared to 28 with the other play. We also want to play from the midpoint next turn as it is still overly stacked. I also believe making the bar point will help us play safer in the future forcing us only to leave indirects instead of directs with our sixes. Finally, being behind in the race we're looking to block the guy in so the bar point has a little more added value than it normally would.
13/7.
Stick
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