This one confused me. At first glance I thought it was a clear money take, but then I tried to visualize how the game would play out and I saw that Blue had plenty of time to escape, so it looked like a big drop for money. ATS I wasn't sure whether White could take, so according to Woolsey it had to be a redouble.
The rollout, however, says that it's either ND/T or TG/T. Seems a little surprising to me; maybe XG is incorrectly taking drops next turn?
By the way, I'm wondering whether XG's reporting of the "Double Decision confidence" as 63.3% is the "right" number to report here. It's true that XG is uncertain whether it's ND or TG, but given that it's a take, it seems more logical to me for XG to say that it's 100.0% confident that Blue should not double.
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| XGID=baBBBBBA---A-A----bbbbbBb-:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:7:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | |
| No Double | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 78.02% (G: 40.41% B: 3.55%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 21.98% (G: 4.23% B: 0.18%) |
| Double/Take | |
| Player Winning Chances: | 77.73% (G: 40.31% B: 7.09%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 22.27% (G: 4.26% B: 0.22%) |
| Cubeless Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.980 |
| Redouble: | +1.331 |
| Cubeful Equities | |
| No Redouble: | +0.999 |
| Redouble/Take: | +0.957 (-0.042) |
| Redouble/Drop: | +1.000 (+0.001) |
| Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take | |
| Rollout details | |
| 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply | |
| Confidence No Redouble: | ± 0.006 (+0.992...+1.005) |
| Confidence Redouble: | ± 0.011 (+0.945...+0.968) |
| Double Decision confidence: | 63.3% |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% |
| Duration: 4 hours 27 minutes | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross