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OLM Sa 02/12/11

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 13 February 2011, at 3:14 a.m.

In Response To: OLM Sa 02/12/11 (Jason Lee)

By the way, the choice between 10/5 and 11/6 last turn was not so clear to me. On general principles, the 11pt is a worse point to occupy in this sort of position than the 10pt (because fewer rolls bring it to safety), so 11/6 seems strategically better than 10/5. It's possible that stacking on the 6pt is an overriding factor but it's not obvious to me.

Our current decision is also not transparent to me. I've learned that visual attractiveness is not always a reliable guide in these sorts of technical bear-in plays. A checker on the 4pt is not of great value at the moment and it is probably better to try to get ready to clear the 6. That said, once the 6pt is cleared, having too many checkers on the 5pt compared to the 4pt is also dangerous because then 3's cause blotting danger. And of course 11/5 blots immediately with 66. I guess I'll go with 11/4 but I think the decision is close.

11/4

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