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Rollout: Another 5a7a recube decision

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 13 February 2011, at 3:25 a.m.

In Response To: Another 5a7a recube decision (Timothy Chow)

Surprisingly few views, even accounting for the subject line...

This is an illustration of the remark I recently made about leader recubes at 5a7a being inhibited in gammonish positions. Here the position is a big drop for money and not even excessively gammonish, but it's gammonish enough to make it NRD/T at 5a7a.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
7 point match
pip: 124
score: 2

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---BBCBBA--bA-b-bBbbbb---:1:1:1:00:2:0:0:7:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 74.67% (G: 19.17% B: 0.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.33% (G: 5.79% B: 0.29%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 75.62% (G: 18.64% B: 1.10%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 24.38% (G: 5.87% B: 0.57%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.640
Redouble:+1.046
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.805
Redouble/Take:+0.727 (-0.079)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.195)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
3888 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.009 (+0.796...+0.815)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.015 (+0.712...+0.741)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 7 hours 34 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Same decision for money:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 123
Money session
Jacoby
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a---BBCBBA--bA-b-bBbbbb---:1:1:1:00:0:0:1:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 73.65% (G: 20.31% B: 0.45%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 26.35% (G: 5.49% B: 0.22%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.79% (G: 21.48% B: 0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.21% (G: 5.69% B: 0.26%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.624
Redouble:+1.314
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.950 (-0.050)
Redouble/Take:+1.139 (+0.139)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 2
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.011 (+0.939...+0.961)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.026 (+1.114...+1.165)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 51 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

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