All i learned for life, i learned in the kindergarten. And in backgammon from “Vision laughs at Counting with advice to the Dicelorn”. We are playing a bear-in, preparing for the best anti-two-point bear-off (Contact Bear-Offs, p. 181ff). Here, we have four dangers:
Gaps. If you have to break a point, the blot can perhaps only be played into the gap, not to safety.
Third man. A third man on the highest occupied point produces a shot with large numbers, to played from here.
Fifth man. A fifth man on the highest occupied point point or a third man on the point next to the highest point will create a blot playing large doublets.
Strippage. Stripped on a key point, you may be forced to leave blots on two different points.
I am a non math. I don’t know how to calculate the risk of the fifth men against the others. But here is a position (p. 183), where it is obvious to smooth out. Neilkaz commented it in a former post from me.
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| XGID=-bBDDB------b----bbcbb----:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue to play 41 | |||||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21
Those problems can be even trickier, when they are mixed. Suppose a contact anchor bear-off with one man in the air.