Timothy Chow: By the way, the choice between 10/5 and 11/6 last turn was not so clear to me. On general principles, the 11pt is a worse point to occupy in this sort of position than the 10pt (because fewer rolls bring it to safety), so 11/6 seems strategically better than 10/5. It's possible that stacking on the 6pt is an overriding factor but it's not obvious to me.
You're probably right. Here's a rollout (not trying to defend the NEXT):
       
 
           
 | | White is XG Roller+
score: 9
pip: 150 | | 15 point match | pip: 83
score: 1
Blue is BGO Readers |
|
| XGID=-BcBBBC--BAAa--a-c-cba-a--:1:-1:1:32:1:9:0:15:10 |
| Blue to play 32 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 10/5 | eq: +0.985 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 84.48% (G:27.15% B:0.93%)
15.52% (G:0.39% B:0.02%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.982...+0.988)
Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 9/4 | eq: +0.967 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 83.74% (G:27.07% B:0.97%)
16.26% (G:0.50% B:0.02%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.964...+0.970)
Duration: 1 hour 54 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout1 | 11/6 | eq: +0.967 (-0.018) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 83.95% (G:26.78% B:0.89%)
16.05% (G:0.36% B:0.01%) | Conf: ± 0.003 (+0.964...+0.970)
Duration: 51 minutes 03 seconds |
|
| |
1 7776 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross