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Cube Action?

Posted By: ah_clem
Date: Monday, 14 February 2011, at 4:05 p.m.

In Response To: Cube Action? (Stick)

Ignoring the blots in white's inner board for the moment, the position looks a lot like a reference position: white on the bar with 8 men off. That give about a 50-50 chance of winning. So if black misses the blots he's still about 50% to win - actually a bit more since 4s and 2s allow him to hit the ace point blot and get another go at picking up another checker.

Factoring in the blots, black will hit 20 out of 36 and almost all of these turn into wins. So figure black is about 50% to win immediately, and then ~50% to win the rest. Seems like a pretty clear double.

The take decision is harder - the rough estimate above gives white about a 25% chance of winning. White can't be gammoned and there's significant recube vig so those would tilt it towards a take.

I'd pass here, but I'm not at all sure about it. I think it's close.

Messages In This Thread

• Cube Action?
  Stick -- Monday, 14 February 2011, at 3:25 p.m.
  • Cube Action?
    Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 14 February 2011, at 3:36 p.m.
  • Cube Action?
    neilkaz -- Monday, 14 February 2011, at 3:58 p.m.
  • Cube Action?
    ah_clem -- Monday, 14 February 2011, at 4:05 p.m.
    • Cube Action?
      Henrik Bukkjaer -- Wednesday, 16 February 2011, at 5:03 p.m.
      • Cube Action?
        Keene -- Wednesday, 16 February 2011, at 5:07 p.m.
        • Cube Action?
          Henrik Bukkjaer -- Wednesday, 16 February 2011, at 5:29 p.m.
          • Cube Action?
            Keene -- Wednesday, 16 February 2011, at 5:49 p.m.
            • Cube Action?
              Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 16 February 2011, at 7:04 p.m.
  • Cube Action?
    Turz -- Monday, 14 February 2011, at 4:10 p.m.
  • Cube Action?
    christian munk-christensen -- Monday, 14 February 2011, at 6:21 p.m.
  • Cube Action?
    Keene -- Monday, 14 February 2011, at 9:40 p.m.
  • Cube Action?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 15 February 2011, at 12:19 a.m.
  • Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 15 February 2011, at 1:54 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Keene -- Tuesday, 15 February 2011, at 3:18 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 15 February 2011, at 3:34 p.m.
        • Rollout
          Stick -- Tuesday, 15 February 2011, at 3:38 p.m.
          • Rollout
            Keene -- Tuesday, 15 February 2011, at 4:36 p.m.
            • Rollout
              Stick -- Tuesday, 15 February 2011, at 7:00 p.m.
              • Rollout
                Keene -- Tuesday, 15 February 2011, at 10:32 p.m.
    • Rollout..a stronger bot chimes in
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 15 February 2011, at 4:46 p.m.