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I think it is worthwhile comparing your position (41S-64P-21D-63) with a variant in which White's 9pt builder is lifted to her 8pt (51S-64P-21D-63). In the left-hand position, I like S (Split, 24/18 13/10). In the right-hand position, I like R (Run, 24/15).
It is possible that S is right in both or that R is right in both, but what I am confident of is that S will fare noticeably better relative to R in the left-hand position than it does in the right-hand position.
The common misconception is that it is bad to "come under the gun" on the 18pt. In fact, doing so is good in most cases, because it deflects Opp (White) from making an inside point with many numbers, and from unstacking her tall 6pt. When Blue comes out to the 18pt in the left-hand position, the tallest source from which White can hit there is a mere three-checker point.
What about all those scary point-on-head numbers? Well, White would have made a superior inside point in front of two back checkers anyway with 64 61 42 41 and unstacked her 6pt in the process; Blue loses half a roll but at least the comparative loss is limited. Also, when White makes an inside point with 53 or 31, her 9pt blot is exposed — it's not always an asset.
In the right-hand position, there are fewer point-making rolls to "deflect" and White can use her aces to hit from a four-checker point. It is therefore less desirable to stay on the 18pt.
- ...for the life of me I cannot understand the reasoning for an almost guaranteed hit.
Do you resonate with this fear factor? I'll repeat the response in this post, which was
- Start looking at your 18pt checker as an asset rather than a liability. Opp would just love to unstack his 6pt while making a high inside point, completing his strategical dominance. You interfere with that goal by plopping onto his 7pt; how annoying for him!
Also, I recommend that you study this related diagram pair. Hope it helps.
Nack