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41S-11e-51 and 41S-22E-51: Rollout Results Posted
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: 41S-11e-51 and 41S-22E-51: Rollout Results Posted (Paul Weaver)
Date: Wednesday, 16 February 2011, at 9:10 p.m.
If White goes to the 18pt and gets hit loose there, he will have fewer numbers that hit back and/or anchor in 41S-11e-51 than in 41S-22E-51. This is because his 43 is duplicated in 41S-11e-51 (B/18* or B/21 24/21) but not in 41S-22E-51, where 54 anchors.
I was thinking of that when I said "the net effect of starting Opp's 7pt when she owns her 5pt instead of her 4pt. What you present is valid, but I see it as only one half of the net effect. The more-or-less offsetting half is that the otherwise unencumbered tendency is a greater incentive to come out to the 18pt when the opponent has made a higher point in her board.
Try altering each of the 41S-11e-11 and 41S-22E-11 positions by giving White her 5pt, then her 4pt, and then her 3pt (evals should be enough but it not then try short truncs). I believe you will see that the relative B vs T "net effect" decision is relatively close in the 5pt/4pt comparison compared to that of the 4pt/3pt comparison (i.e., the 3pt variant will have T easily beating B). If it weren't for the if-hit-then-43-is-duplicated factor (though it's not necessarily the only factor), the point-strength curve would be smoother.
In short, while I don't mean to invalidate your point, the 43-duplication factor creates a hiccup in a curve, offsetting the generic motivation to come out to the 18pt when White has the higher inside point. My mode of analysis is to mention both factors, or to think of these two aspects as cancelling each other out and specifically mention neither (as I did). Otherwise, it might cause people to conclude that coming out to the 18pt in this formation is more desirable when Opp has the 5pt than when she has the 4pt when in fact on balance it is about equally desirable.
Nack
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