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Come under the gun?

Posted By: Marty Storer
Date: Thursday, 17 February 2011, at 10:42 p.m.

In Response To: Come under the gun? (leobueno)

You have two things in your favor: you're ahead in the race and you have a stronger inner board. Against you, you've made a deep point in your board and stripped your 8 point. The pair of points, 2 point and 8 point, don't cooperate in priming, and your 2 point isn't a good blocking point in itself.

So your indicated game plans are (1) race, and (2) mix things up tactically. Of course you can't just decide on a game plan and magically cause the game to unfold according to that plan, but you can make steering plays to increase the likelihood of a favorable race or hitting contest.

Your play of 13/7 13/10 steers toward a mutual blocking game, which is not the indicated game plan. It doesn't take enough advantage of your assets. So I'm not surprised that 13/7 13/10 is dinged by GNU.

The choice is between 24/15 (more of a racing play) and 24/18 13/10 (more of a tactical play). It's hard to decide between the two. 24/18 looks scary but is a great diversion.

Diversion from what? From White's indicated plan of blocking. After your 24/15 13/10, there are many duplicated rolls for White. Some of White's rolls that point on you forgo the 5 point, which is the next point on White's wish-list. But if White makes the 5 point directly, you can hit, run, or anchor depending on what you roll. An advanced anchor stalls White's blocking plans. Both hitting and running gain in the race for you.

Yes, White may point on you and then continue to attack or build, but by coming to the 18 point you force her to pay attention to that point rather than her 5 point. There are tactical and other benefits to doing that.

Running 24/15 is straightforward. You threaten to clear a back checker (you're up 13 pips after the roll) and you duplicate a bunch of White's aces and 3s to make her 5 point.

It's hard for me to choose between those two. They're both thematic and good. I think that at 3-away to 3-away I'd run. But I have no strong analytical justification for 24/15 over 24/18 13/10. Both gammon-avoidance and gammon-greed should come into play a little more than usual, and my emotions say that gammon-avoidance is a bigger gain for this particular position at the score.

Messages In This Thread

• Come under the gun?
  leobueno -- Wednesday, 16 February 2011, at 4:02 p.m.
  • Come under the gun?
    Casper van der Tak -- Wednesday, 16 February 2011, at 4:42 p.m.
  • 41S-64P-21D-63
    Stick -- Wednesday, 16 February 2011, at 5:08 p.m.
  • Come under the gun?
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 16 February 2011, at 6:48 p.m.
  • 41S-64P-21D-63 and 51S-64P-21D-63
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 16 February 2011, at 8:21 p.m.
    • 41S-64P-21D-63 and 51S-64P-21D-63 "Overprotection"
      higonefive -- Thursday, 17 February 2011, at 10:51 a.m.
  • Come under the gun?
    neilkaz -- Wednesday, 16 February 2011, at 8:26 p.m.
  • Come under the gun?
    Turz -- Thursday, 17 February 2011, at 2:24 p.m.
  • Come under the gun?
    Marty Storer -- Thursday, 17 February 2011, at 10:42 p.m.