This post might be pushed so far down on some lists that it will never be read, but I hope it is still on Ian's radar.
For (Chuck's) left-hand position, the rollout confirms that hitting is very clear.
For the right-hand position I really don't know. The decision looks very close to me and I am thinking of it as a useful reference position with a delicate balance. If White's anchor is any more advanced, it is substantially better for Blue to hit. If White's anchor is any less advanced (or her back checkers are split inside Blue's home board), it is substantially better for Blue to make the 5pt.
The other positions you responded to are:
You are correct that making the 5pt is best in the left-hand position, and that hitting is best in the right-hand position. For the latter, do you care to opine which blot Blue should hit? When you're ready for the answer, read page 53 of Backgammon Openings and/or Julian Fetterlein's analysis.
Nack
