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Rollout (and XG bug?)

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Sunday, 20 February 2011, at 8:11 p.m.

In Response To: The Art of Beavering (Timothy Chow)

The rollout says it's a clear beaver. But see also the variant below, which demonstrates the effect of a single pip change in the race.

By the way, I think the XG display here should read "No Redouble/Beaver" rather than "No Redouble/Take"; i.e., the number displayed is twice what it should be if Blue were to simply take without beavering. In any case, the display I see here is different from what I see inside XG itself.

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 38 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 40 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ACCB-----------A----dcfa-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	54.01% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	45.99% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	54.01% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	45.99% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.080
Redouble:	+0.160
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.256
Redouble/Take:	-0.268 (-0.524)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.744)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Beaver
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.004 (+0.253...+0.260)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.014 (-0.281...-0.254)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

---

Variant:

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 38 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 41 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=-ACCB------------A---dcfa-:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	57.32% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	42.68% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	57.32% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	42.68% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.146
Redouble:	+0.293
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.339
Redouble/Take:	+0.026 (-0.313)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.661)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 2 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.003 (+0.336...+0.342)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.006 (+0.020...+0.032)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

Messages In This Thread

• The Art of Beavering
  Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 19 February 2011, at 5:38 p.m.
  • The Art of Beavering
    Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 19 February 2011, at 5:59 p.m.
  • The Art of Beavering
    Stick -- Saturday, 19 February 2011, at 6:00 p.m.
  • The Art of Beavering
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Sunday, 20 February 2011, at 12:00 p.m.
    • The Art of Beavering
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 20 February 2011, at 5:25 p.m.
  • Rollout (and XG bug?)
    Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 20 February 2011, at 8:11 p.m.
  • The Art of Beavering
    ah_clem -- Monday, 21 February 2011, at 4:08 p.m.