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Recube postion from first round match Pittsburgh

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 22 February 2011, at 3:23 p.m.

In Response To: Recube postion from first round match Pittsburgh (Adam Versaw)

It's so much work to figure all this out but since nobody has replied.

Let's figure out White's take point.

• Double/Pass is -6 -6 for 50% ME
• Double/Take/Lose is -6 -4 for 36%
• Double/Take/Win is -2 -8 for 88%

Risking 14 to gain 38 so 14/52 gives us a raw take point of 27%. His recube vig is diminished since Blue will either take and put the match on the line or pass and trail -8 -2 (12%). We'll ballpark he needs 25-26% to take before adjusting for gammons.

Now I don't know where the gammon values fall exactly without working them out or looking them up on a 4 cube at this score but common sense should tell you Blue's gammon value on a 4 cube should be elevated since it wins him the match exactly and White's gammon value will be greatly diminished because he has 2 points of overage when he wins a gammon. Being too lazy to figure them out right now or even look them up, I'll shoot with .75 and .25 respectively.

I think it's clear that Blue, the player considering whether or not to cube, wins more gammons than White. Not a lot more, just more, I'd guess 5% more. I'll make my guess at 17%/12%. This means I'll have to add another 9% on to my cube adjusted take point. It was 25-26% before, now we'll make it 34-35%.

Does my opponent have the 34-35% needed to take here? I think so, but it's not overwhelmingly clear. I have 6 numbers that make the 6 prime straight away [61 52 43] and all of my deuces [21 22 32 42 52 62] which form a compact 5 prime that will force my opponent to break his prime in most sequences or be forced to run off with a six and let me pound away on his two remaining blots. [66 11] aren't too shabby either. That's over half my rolls being good to great rolls, smells like a cube to me. Most normal rolls leave me with a playable position also.

The take is what is now in question and for money I could stick by my rule of all normal looking prime versus primes are takes and scoop it up. Well, as we already covered, this isn't money. Still, having studied those money prime v. prime cubes most of them win the needed 34-35% of the time so I'll see what happens.

Double/Take

Stick

Messages In This Thread

• Recube postion from first round match Pittsburgh
  Adam Versaw -- Monday, 21 February 2011, at 12:11 p.m.
  • Nobody I showed this too got this one right....Anyone? *NM*
    Adam Versaw -- Tuesday, 22 February 2011, at 3:00 p.m.
    • I find this quite surprising
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 22 February 2011, at 4:26 p.m.
      • I find this quite surprising
        Adam Versaw -- Tuesday, 22 February 2011, at 5:40 p.m.
  • Recube postion from first round match Pittsburgh
    Stick -- Tuesday, 22 February 2011, at 3:23 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Adam Versaw -- Tuesday, 22 February 2011, at 3:40 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 22 February 2011, at 4:16 p.m.
  • Recube postion from first round match Pittsburgh
    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 22 February 2011, at 3:44 p.m.