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OLM Tu 02/22/11

Posted By: Stein Kulseth
Date: Tuesday, 22 February 2011, at 10:55 p.m.

In Response To: OLM Tu 02/22/11 (Jason Lee)

The easy part of this position is that we need to hit, and that the blot in our board shouldn't scare us. The somewhat harder part is that White is very inflexible, meaning that we can also get many hits by waiting, and then we have our 5 point board made.

I count 17 rolls that blot for white next turn, so we are about 1 in 6 to have him on bar against a 5 point board after next turn by waiting, plus some chances to hit later.

However by hitting now there is 16 in 36 to have him on bar against a 4.5 board (with 22/36 chance of becoming a 5pt board) and 2 in 36 to have him come out without hitting meaning we can continue the attack or at least clean up.

There are a lot of gammons lost after hitting, but we win some too, and with gammons in play, it is very hard for XGR+ to get good use of the cube.

So all in all, the natural hitting play seems best to me

21H

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