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Arachnophobia - rollouts

Posted By: Matt Ryder
Date: Wednesday, 23 February 2011, at 1:02 a.m.

In Response To: Arachnophobia - board diagram repost (Casper van der Tak)

Casper's analysis is spot on. At this match score it seems you can take with a paltry 19.76% win chance:





White is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 46
21 point match
pip: 34
score: 11

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-FA-B-------------Ad-bbcb-:2:1:1:00:11:8:0:21:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 80.24% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.76% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.24% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.76% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.605
Redouble:+0.993
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.797 (-0.032)
Redouble/Take:+0.829
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.171)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.000 (+0.796...+0.797)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.000 (+0.828...+0.829)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 2 minutes 05 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

However, for money it's a drop:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 46
Money session
pip: 34
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-FA-B-------------Ad-bbcb-:2:1:1:00:0:0:0:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 80.22% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.78% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.23% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.77% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.604
Redouble:+1.209
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.869 (-0.131)
Redouble/Take:+1.095 (+0.095)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.001 (+0.869...+0.870)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.001 (+1.095...+1.096)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 08 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21

The precise match score appears to be critical. Adding one point to Blue's score (making it 12) turns this into a no redouble situation:





White is Player 2

score: 8
pip: 46
21 point match
pip: 34
score: 12

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-FA-B-------------Ad-bbcb-:2:1:1:00:12:8:0:21:10
Blue on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 80.25% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.75% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 80.26% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 19.74% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.605
Redouble:+0.893
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.752
Redouble/Take:+0.653 (-0.099)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000 (+0.248)
Best Cube action: No Redouble / Take
Rollout details
41472 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.000 (+0.752...+0.752)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.000 (+0.653...+0.654)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 1 minute 45 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

In the match, I correctly chose RD/T. Unhappily, it ended badly for me... Oh well, at least I'm a technically correct loser, which is cold comfort... :-)

By the way, round these parts the term "spider" implies the dreaded 8-cube. Is this lingo used anywhere else in the world? (Otherwise I imagine this thread's subject must've seemed somewhat perplexing...)

Matt R

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