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Arachnophobia - rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 23 February 2011, at 1:20 a.m.

In Response To: Arachnophobia - rollouts (Matt Ryder)

Have never heard of spider before referring to an 8 cube. I do dread 8 cubes in match play but I simply adore them in money play.

In the original problem:

  • Double/Pass for -13 -6 or 18.5%
  • Double/Take/Lose for -13 -2 or 4%
  • Double/Take/Win for -5 -10 or 77%

Risking 14.5% to gain 58.5%. 14.5/73 or almost 20% as your raw take point. I used Neil's numbers and a little common sense to figure out the match equities at those scores. It's wickedly simple for all those who still see it as magic you should check it out.

The leader's take point on any possible 8 cube will be around 23-24%, I'll spare you the math. This means the opponent's fully live cube take point is probably closer to 15%. These numbers pretty much align with what the bot reports, monster take even though you're winning under 20%.

To show you what happens by adding a point to Blue's score here's what we'd get:

  • Double/Pass for -13 -5 or 14%
  • Double/Take/Lose for -13 -1C or 2%
  • Double/Take/Win for -5 -9 or 73%

Risking 12 to gain 59 so 12/71 or a raw take point now down to 17%. Again with the recube vig this will push the live cube take point down to around 12%.

Stick

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