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Rip em off or safe

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 26 February 2011, at 8:55 p.m.

In Response To: Rip em off or safe (rew)

The first things you should think about are: Is the race close? Do gammons matter and if so, is the gammon race close? Do backgammons matter and if so, is the backgammon race close?

Then you can ask: Which play is safer in the short run and by how much? Does the long run matter (i.e., is there still going to be contact in the long run or is the opponent going to be forced to run?) and if so, which play is safer in the long run and by how much?

Here it's clear that the only race you need to worry about is the gammon race. The opponent will probably stick around on the 5pt for a while (if you don't clear the 6pt) so you do need to think about the long term as well as the short term.

The opponent will need at least 58 pips or just over 7 rolls on average to get off the gammon. You're likely to get off in 7 rolls after the safe play since you have 13 checkers left, but the gammon race isn't gin by any means. On the other hand, if you rip 4 off, it doesn't improve your racing chances quite as much as you might think, because you're not going to bear 2 checkers with 65 64 63 62 when the opponent is still sitting on your 5pt, plus you have a gap on your 5pt that means you may miss with a 5.

Not a trivial decision but I would play safe here.

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