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How confident is confident

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 11:51 p.m.

In Response To: Rollout (higonefive)

There's no hard-and-fast rule about how narrow the confidence intervals should be before you can be "certain" that the results will not be overturned by a longer rollout. I believe XG reports twice the standard deviation, so if the sum of these is less than the difference between the plays then that should be pretty good, but of course still not an absolute guarantee. And yes, there is no substitute for doing more trials.

Messages In This Thread

• Interesting & Easy?
  Stick -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 12:58 a.m.
  • Interesting & Easy?
    Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 1:44 a.m.
    • Interesting & Easy?
      Stick -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 1:47 a.m.
      • Interesting & Easy?
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 1:55 a.m.
      • Interesting & Easy?
        poseidon -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 8:05 a.m.
  • Interesting & Easy?
    neilkaz -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 3:16 a.m.
  • Interesting & Easy?
    Casper van der Tak -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 3:50 a.m.
  • Interesting & Easy?
    Seth -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 4:03 a.m.
    • Interesting & Easy?
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 3:45 p.m.
      • Interesting & Easy?
        Stick -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 4:11 p.m.
        • Interesting & Easy?
          neilkaz -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 4:32 p.m.
  • Interesting & Easy?
    higonefive -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 10:02 a.m.
  • Interesting & Easy?
    Turz -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 1:09 p.m.
  • Interesting & Easy?
    ForestFriend -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 4:12 p.m.
    • Interesting & Easy?
      neilkaz -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 4:28 p.m.
      • Interesting & Easy?
        ForestFriend -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 4:51 p.m.
  • Rollout
    Claude Landry -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 8:42 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Stick -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 8:44 p.m.
      • Rollout
        higonefive -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 10:50 p.m.
        • How confident is confident
          Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 11:51 p.m.
      • Rollout
        Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 2 March 2011, at 12:11 a.m.
    • Rollout
      christian munk-christensen -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 9:09 p.m.
      • Pottle's law
        Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 11:46 p.m.
    • Rollout
      Paul Weaver -- Tuesday, 1 March 2011, at 11:19 p.m.
    • Extended Rollout
      Claude Landry -- Wednesday, 2 March 2011, at 1:12 a.m.
      • Extended Extended Rollout
        Claude Landry -- Wednesday, 2 March 2011, at 4:49 a.m.
        • Extended Extended Rollout
          Higonefive -- Wednesday, 2 March 2011, at 7:23 a.m.
  • Interesting & Easy?
    leobueno -- Wednesday, 2 March 2011, at 12:34 a.m.
  • 31P-52S-65R-33A-52D-61P-21N-63R-62o-62
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 2 March 2011, at 2:01 a.m.