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62 to play for the match

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Thursday, 3 March 2011, at 1:52 a.m.

In Response To: 62 to play for the match (Lucas Bauer)

With such a strong race lead, we prefer to play safe and not get hit; hitting gains only a few pips in the race, which don't benefit us all that much.

Hitting gives White 11 immediate shots instead of 12, but we also have to consider reblotting danger. If we shun the hit and White fails to hit us immediately, then we're home free. However, if we hit and White fails to enter, then 66 65 64 55 54 44 reblot. That seems enough to make hitting worse.

We still have a choice among 3/1, 4/2, and 5/3. I doubt it makes a big difference. 5/3 seems the most natural, though it does create a blot that we'll regret if White hits us but doesn't cover and we hit back from the bar.

8/2 5/3 for me.

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