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62 to play for the match

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 3 March 2011, at 5:12 a.m.

In Response To: 62 to play for the match (Timothy Chow)

If we hit and are hit back let's say we lose 10 out of those 11 immediate games. We have some minor life after death with our opponent's ace point blotted and our strong 5 point board but of the entering numbers 66 65 64 cover and essentially win the game for our opponent.

What happens with the remaining 25 games? We reblot with [66 55 44 65 64 54] or 9 numbers. Our opponent will then hit ~2.7 of those 9 games. He doesn't outright win all of these games either since we will now have checkers off and still the opportunity to enter and escape thanks to the blotted ace point. Let's say we win half a game when we're hit in this scenario giving our opponent just over 2 wins. The rest of the games I will say we win outright, when we aren't hit. So when we hit we win ~67%/lose ~33%.

Now what happens when we don't hit? We leave 12 immediate shots of which we'll lost roughly 11 games again when hit immediately. We're left with trying to figure out how often our opponent can win this race if he doesn't hit. Note his immediate roll when he doesn't hit will be more than your average roll in general because the rolls that do hit, 11 21 22 32 42 52 62, are all below average rolls. (the average roll is slightly above 8 pips)

At this point I'd ask myself of the 24 remaining games do I think my opponent wins more than 1 of them based on the race alone. I'd note again his average immediate roll is higher than normal because of the small numbers hitting and some of those rolls put him as a real contender in the race, the big doubles. I'd also note the epc as I clearly have a lot more wastage than my opponent. I believe he would win more than 1 game out of the remaining 24 even with my huge pip lead. I'd guess 2 games without doing any hard core adjusted Kleinman figuring. If he does win 2 more games based on the race alone this means he wins 13/36 games or a 64%/36% split thus I must hit or blunder.

Hit, hit, hit!

Stick

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