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Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?

Posted By: Stick
Date: Thursday, 3 March 2011, at 1:39 p.m.

In Response To: Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right? (Paul Weaver)

It's surprising to me that everyone is getting this wrong so let's deconstruct it a bit. The first part of the play I'm hoping everyone is getting correct, 24/20. Your opponent has an advanced anchor, albeit only the 22pt anchor, but an advanced anchor nonetheless. Right now your opponent doesn't have much wood in the zone but if you wait even one turn to split those checkers you can bet that he will be ripping those spares down off the midpoint and it will be too late to split. In general once your opponent has anchored up thus taking away your chances to attack or prime him for the most part, you had better get your back checkers moving.

With that out of the way we need to figure out how to play the three. I quickly dismissed 11/8 because if I'm going to leave an indirect shot in the outfield I might as well bring down another builder and hold on to the 11pt which has real value.

Now we're down to two plays, 13/10 or 8/5.

13/10 leaves 6 indirect shots, none of which are duplicated to otherwise make the five point. Getting away with this doesn't give you a clear cut gain. Sure, you have another builder for the bar point or five point but when are you going to get to use that builder? Not soon because you won't be playing your full roll any time soon. Your opponent will either make his own 5pt, hit your blot on the 10pt, or use most of his less than stellar rolls to hit you loose off his 5pt. If 13/10 is ever to be a builder it will have to be a few plies down the road.

8/5 leaves how many shots thanks to duplication? Well it's easy to see that 21 doesn't hit because your opponent will make his own 5pt. He will also probably make his own 5pt with 32. We're now down to 7 shots really, just one more than if we play 13/10. Our gain from this play is huge in comparison. Even if we are put on the bar we have a fair amount of entering and covering numbers (good sixes!).

The play seemed clear to me ignoring any QF, as you should. Normally you don't splot but here is a clear exception.

Stick

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