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Variance Reduction Question

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 7:25 p.m.

In Response To: Variance Reduction Question (Phil Simborg)

Sort of a big mistake, wouldnt you say?
is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 130
5 point match
pip: 116
score: 1

is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-bDCDA--a-----adbb-bA-:0:0:-1:00:1:0:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in XG Roller+
Player Winning Chances: 65.81% (G: 24.98% B: 0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.19% (G: 7.18% B: 0.42%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.467
Double:+1.080
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.616 (-0.237)
Double/Take:+0.854
Double/Drop:+1.000 (+0.146)
Best Cube action: Double / Take

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross
is junejuly

score: 0
pip: 130
5 point match
pip: 116
score: 1

is Lyurix
XGID=-a-B-bDCDA--a-----adbb-bA-:0:0:-1:00:1:0:0:5:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 66.67% (G: 25.97% B: 0.58%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.33% (G: 7.23% B: 0.51%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.25% (G: 33.09% B: 0.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.75% (G: 8.57% B: 0.91%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.492
Double:+1.332
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.679 (-0.321)
Double/Take:+1.118 (+0.118)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.020 (+0.660...+0.699)
Confidence Double: ± 0.031 (+1.087...+1.150)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 13 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

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