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How are cube decisions made in high level XG rollouts?

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 9:58 p.m.

In Response To: A possible correction for what you posted at 2+2 (Neil Robins)

Ok I needed higher settings to roll out the second position above but it's still favouring double.

The question I'm now wondering about is whether or not all cube decisions in a rollout with 4-ply cube are actually made at 4-ply. If 3-ply or some lower ply says the decision isn't close, does it stop there? That would be kind of bad if you're just using a higher ply because you don't trust the lower one in the position.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 73 5 point match pip: 131 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-B-BBCB--A--------AcdcdB-:1:1:1:00:1:0:0:5:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	68.72% (G: 7.23% B: 0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31.28% (G: 12.62% B: 0.99%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	69.98% (G: 8.49% B: 0.12%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.02% (G: 15.94% B: 1.69%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.286
Redouble:	+0.889
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.716 (-0.006)
Redouble/Take:	+0.722
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.278)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 31247 Moves and cube decisions: 4 ply Search interval: Huge
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.008 (+0.709...+0.724)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.010 (+0.713...+0.732)
Double Decision confidence:	83.4%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 3 hours 37 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 1.21, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Messages In This Thread

• Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
  higonefive -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 11:12 a.m.
  • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
    christian munk-christensen -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 11:40 a.m.
  • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
    Stick -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 1:22 p.m.
    • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
      Higonefive -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 1:45 p.m.
      • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
        Stick -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 2:26 p.m.
        • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
          higonefive -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 2:36 p.m.
          • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
            Stick -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 3:13 p.m.
            • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
              higonefive -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 3:32 p.m.
              • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
                Stick -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 3:37 p.m.
                • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
                  higonefive -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 4:27 p.m.
                  • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
                    Stick -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 12:19 a.m.
                    • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
                      neilkaz -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 4:34 a.m.
                    • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
                      higonefive -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 11:02 p.m.
  • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
    Sebastiaan kuijs -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 2:43 p.m.
  • A possible correction for what you posted at 2+2
    neilkaz -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 4:08 p.m.
    • A possible correction for what you posted at 2+2
      higonefive -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 4:39 p.m.
    • A possible correction for what you posted at 2+2
      Neil Robins -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 6:09 p.m.
      • A possible correction for what you posted at 2+2
        neilkaz -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 4:30 a.m.
        • A possible correction for what you posted at 2+2
          Neil Robins -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 11:55 a.m.
          • A possible correction for what you posted at 2+2
            Michael Depreli -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 12:16 p.m.
            • A possible correction for what you posted at 2+2
              Neil Robins -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 1:35 p.m.
              • A possible correction for what you posted at 2+2
                Michael Depreli -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 2:19 p.m.
          • A possible correction for what you posted at 2+2
            neilkaz -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 2:38 p.m.
            • A possible correction for what you posted at 2+2
              Neil Robins -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 4:52 p.m.
              • How are cube decisions made in high level XG rollouts?
                Neil Robins -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 9:58 p.m.
              • XG1 XGR+ evals
                neilkaz -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 5:03 a.m.
                • XGR+ RO started for your 2nd position
                  neilkaz -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 5:07 a.m.
                  • XGR+ RO result for your 2nd position
                    neilkaz -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 4:12 p.m.
                • XG1 XGR+ evals
                  Neil Robins -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 12:04 p.m.
  • Where's the RO people are talking about? *NM*
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 4:25 p.m.
    • Where's the RO people are talking about?
      Stick -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 4:28 p.m.
      • Are you going to take this slam quietly?
        Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 4:53 p.m.
        • Are you going to take this slam quietly?
          Stick -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 5:18 p.m.
      • Thanks, Stick! *NM*
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 5:21 p.m.
    • Where's the RO people are talking about?
      higonefive -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 4:30 p.m.
  • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
    Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 4:34 p.m.
  • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
    Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 4:34 p.m.
    • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
      higonefive -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 4:41 p.m.
      • particle accelerators (OT)
        Chuck Bower -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 4:57 p.m.
        • particle accelerators (OT)
          higonefive -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 6:02 p.m.
          • particle accelerators (OT)
            Stick -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 6:08 p.m.
            • particle accelerators (OT) Thanks. Adding up my booklist. *NM*
              higonefive -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 6:41 p.m.
  • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 5:20 p.m.
    • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
      Stick -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 5:24 p.m.
      • Curling up with a holding game (And Who Can Truthfully Claim He Would Have Gotten This Right?).
        Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 5:25 p.m.
  • Summing it up.
    higonefive -- Saturday, 5 March 2011, at 6:32 p.m.
    • I slightly disagree
      Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 8:11 p.m.
      • I slightly disagree
        higonefive -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 10:26 p.m.
        • I slightly disagree
          Casper van der Tak -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 10:41 p.m.
          • I slightly disagree
            higonefive -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 10:37 a.m.
            • I slightly disagree
              Casper van der Tak -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 10:40 a.m.
  • gnuBG 3-ply (Grandmaster) rollout disagrees
    Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 6:04 p.m.
    • gnuBG 3-ply (Grandmaster) rollout disagrees
      higonefive -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 6:57 p.m.
    • gnuBG 3-ply (Grandmaster) rollout disagrees
      Michael Depreli -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 7:05 p.m.
      • gnuBG 3-ply (Grandmaster) rollout disagrees
        Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 7:13 p.m.
        • gnuBG 3-ply (Grandmaster) rollout disagrees
          Michael Depreli -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 7:24 p.m.
          • gnuBG 3-ply (Grandmaster) rollout disagrees
            Chuck Bower -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 8:35 p.m.
            • gnuBG 3-ply (Grandmaster) rollout disagrees
              Michael Depreli -- Sunday, 6 March 2011, at 9:01 p.m.
    • gnuBG 2-ply (Supremo) rollout
      Chuck Bower -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 1:30 a.m.
      • gnuBG 2-ply (Supremo) rollout
        Michael Depreli -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 5:22 p.m.
      • gnuBG 2-ply (Supremo) rollout
        Daniel Murphy -- Tuesday, 8 March 2011, at 4:50 p.m.
      • gnuBG 2-ply (Supremo) rollout
        Michael Depreli -- Wednesday, 9 March 2011, at 10:29 a.m.
  • Can we get a XGR+ RO?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 3:28 p.m.
    • What candidate plays would you suggest?
      neilkaz -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 3:56 p.m.
      • What candidate plays would you suggest?
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 4:01 p.m.
        • What candidate plays would you suggest?
          Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 4:05 p.m.
          • What candidate plays would you suggest?
            neilkaz -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 4:34 p.m.
    • Can we get a XGR+ RO?
      higonefive -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 4:14 p.m.
      • Can we get a XGR+ RO?
        Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 4:23 p.m.
        • Can we get a XGR+ RO? Touché. *NM*
          higonefive -- Monday, 7 March 2011, at 5:06 p.m.