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43Z-61P-33c-51 and 43Z-61P-33M-51
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: 4th roll position: 43Z-61P-33C-51 (Dmitriy Obukhov)
Date: Wednesday, 9 March 2011, at 7:23 p.m.
Thanks, Dmitriy, for catching my eye with the header. And good job on the Nactation. Capital C works by assumption (obvious distributional gain), though technically it means 24/21 9/6 8/5(2) by 6pt convention; I therefore tend to prefer the bulletproof "c." (Whether C or c, there is no need to underline, because White had no 2:2 ratio C-family plays; in other words, either c or c is technically correct.)
43Z-61P-33c-51
43Z-61P-33M-51
With 43Z followed by next-turn 33, it is best typically (and as is the case here, for White) to play M (Mayfair Split, 24/21 13/10 6/3(2) rather than c. That M play is shown in the right-hand diagram, and with a roll of 51 it is somewhat standard (and I believe proper) for Blue to react with U (Up, 24/18) -- step out to White's bar point in order to deflect her from using her builders to make the 5pt or 4pt.
In the left-hand position (43Z-61P-33c-51, as posed), there is less pull to come out to the 18pt, though it might still be right. I think I would try S (Split-and-down, 24/23 13/8), and with even a slightly bigger race deficit I'd switch to $ (Slot, 13/8 6/5). In this case, though, all three plays look reasonable.
In both positions, it is atrocious to "do nothing" with 13/7. Blue is in deep positional trouble and some sort of music-facing action is called for: either to (a) move a back checker or to (b) slot and hope to win the priming / anchor-holding battle despite Opp's more advanced anchor (racing deficit = tolerable timing).
Nack
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