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54S-64P-43S-21E-52R-42
Posted By: Nack Ballard In Response To: 54S-64P-43@-21E-52R-42 (Dmitriy Obukhov)
Date: Thursday, 10 March 2011, at 7:51 p.m.
First of all, a Nactation comment. You're not the only person I've seen use @ for White's 24/20 13/10, but it is technically incorrect. There is no hit or most-points affect, so by 6pt convention, @ (anchor) = 24/20 8/5, # (alt anchor) = 24/20 6/3, and italic @ = 24/20 13/10 (though you'd have to switch to a font other than this one for the italicization of @ to "take").
54S-64P-43
When there is a stack on the midpoint and only three checkers on the 8pt, it is easier to "fly under the radar" with @ for this play (though it still requires assumption over strict usage). However, it is safer in any case to use S, which fits perfectly. Once it is hard-wired into your brain that "S" means Split-and-down, you will automatically look at the two intended parts of the board. (Btw, lower case "s" would mean 20/16 13/10, which ends up with one fewer point.)
A leftover portion of an H (Hit) or K (Kill / double hit) play comes down by default, but the down default does not apply to other letters.
You asked about Blue's 21. It seems to me that 24/23 is practically forced for the ace, which gives rise to candidates of E (Each, 24/23 6/4), U (Up, 24/21), V (Variant-up, 24/23 24/22), and S (Split-and-down, 24/23 13/11).
151
54S-64P-43S-21 157
On the surface, it seems useful to unstack the midpoint and hope to make the 11pt. If White hits, she must break the anchor, and most 6s are duped. Still, the 6s are upgrades and the 11pt checker could end up being a nuisance to Blue in the near-term. S doesn't really appeal to me.
That leaves E, U and V. Blue doesn't mind coming under the gun when facing only a one-point board, and the value of directly threatening a blot compensates, so I guess I like U at least as much as V.
E seems trickier to assess. If Blue is able to hit a fly shot, he doesn't want a blot on his 4pt; OTOH, the board is screaming, "Fill me in!" To that end, a spare 4 to cover the 4pt will do almost as well as a spare 2; the 8pt loses value when the 2pt is made. (This is one reason one should resist splitting against an opening 64; in the course of an attack, the 8pt is more willing to be broken than a point that is not six apart.) So, I'll go along with E, as played (which could also be nactated W for Wild). If it can induce a whopper like White's 52R in response, all the better. :)
For reference, I am supplying a smaller-error alternative sequence (of the same length but without White's 52R) in the caption above.
144
64R-64P-63Z-21X-53S-42 154
With 42, I reject any play that doesn't cover the 4pt. Even so, Blue seems to have several plausible candidates (alphabetically listed), and this time I will not frustrate the color-blind. :)
C = Cross (23/21 8/4)
c = cross (24/22 8/4)
E = Each (24/20 6/4)
J = Jump (8/6 8/4)
N = Near (13/9 6/4)
O = Outer (13/11 8/4)?Given that Blue is down 10 pips, I like best the two-pronged approach of C, which looks like the best way to harness his three-point board. This play simultaneously threatens White's outfield blot with 6s and her back checker with 3s and 1s (and FWIW duplicates 3s). Again, for aforementioned reasons, I don't "mind" breaking the reduced-value 8pt.
Nack
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