RO OTB etc

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RO OTB etc

Posted By: neilkaz
Date: Friday, 11 March 2011, at 3:46 p.m.

In Response To: Don't Want Or Need 7pt Here (Paul Weaver)

Paul's is correct in that I don't want the bar pt here, but unfortunately, OTB I talked myself into making it. However, if I play 15/9 10/4, CJC will want to hit with 53 and 43 (esp. 53) both according to XGR+ and my quick 3 ply RO (all with XG2 alpha and noting XGR+ results match RO's very closely for this position type.
So since I don't want to be hit, and there's nothing really wrong with 15/6 8/5 and it prepares to clear my outside points, that is the play I should've made. The bar pt isn't terrible here, but with this pip count differential, a lot of my losses will occur when I am hit trying to clear it. There are no spare checkers to block with my prime.
Anyhow, as the game played out, I rolled well to not leave a shot and after she was squeezed off my 3 pt I soon pointed on it and ended up winning a match ending G.
Here's the XGR+ RO and evals and since the RO for the top 3 candidates was very close to XGR+ eval I see no need to RO other candidates.

is Carol Joy Cole

score: 13
pip: 161

15 point match

pip: 113
score: 12

is Neil Kazaross

XGID=--bbBBC-CBB----Aabbcba----:1:-1:1:33:12:13:0:15:10
to play 33

1. Rollout¹ 15/6 8/5 eq: +0.6478
Player:
Opponent: 73.21% (G:19.27% B:3.12%)
26.79% (G:2.44% B:0.15%) Conf.: ą0.0019 (+0.6460...+0.6497) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 44 minutes
2. Rollout¹ 15/9 10/4 eq: +0.6012 (-0.0467)
Player:
Opponent: 70.55% (G:19.95% B:4.01%)
29.45% (G:3.70% B:0.16%) Conf.: ą0.0019 (+0.5992...+0.6031) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 hours 09 minutes
3. Rollout¹ 15/12 10/7(2) 8/5 eq: +0.5890 (-0.0588)
Player:
Opponent: 69.74% (G:20.39% B:3.57%)
30.26% (G:3.38% B:0.12%) Conf.: ą0.0018 (+0.5872...+0.5909) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 hours 20 minutes
4. XG Roller+ 10/4(2) eq: +0.5955 (-0.0523)
Player:
Opponent: 70.70% (G:19.05% B:0.78%)
29.30% (G:2.82% B:0.07%)
5. XG Roller+ 15/9 10/7(2) eq: +0.5913 (-0.0566)
Player:
Opponent: 69.95% (G:20.19% B:0.78%)
30.05% (G:3.16% B:0.07%)
6. XG Roller+ 10/1 8/5 eq: +0.5904 (-0.0575)
Player:
Opponent: 69.32% (G:21.41% B:0.97%)
30.68% (G:3.82% B:0.13%)
7. XG Roller+ 15/12 10/4 8/5 eq: +0.5870 (-0.0608)
Player:
Opponent: 68.88% (G:21.98% B:1.19%)
31.12% (G:3.65% B:0.12%)
8. XG Roller+ 15/12 10/1 eq: +0.5707 (-0.0771)
Player:
Opponent: 68.47% (G:21.14% B:0.98%)
31.53% (G:4.08% B:0.15%)
9. XG Roller+ 10/7(2) 9/6(2) eq: +0.5644 (-0.0834)
Player:
Opponent: 68.65% (G:20.10% B:0.80%)
31.35% (G:3.23% B:0.07%)
10. XG Roller+ 15/12 9/6(2) 8/5 eq: +0.5563 (-0.0915)
Player:
Opponent: 68.12% (G:20.35% B:1.05%)
31.88% (G:3.38% B:0.11%)

¹ 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89681349
Moves and cube decisions: XG Roller+

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00.155.alpha, MET: Kazaross XG2