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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Saturday, 12 March 2011, at 6:30 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz - 3/11/11 (Stick)

All rollouts thanks to David Rockwell. Number 4 was rolled out incorrectly so I supplied the XGR+.

Number 1

- Already down a bit in the race, lots of shots, a poor holding game with a five point board but the missing six point makes this a pass. Making the full six point board makes it a clear take, maybe not even a cube.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 94
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 101
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-BBBCC---a-a----b-AcbcBc--:2:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 76.58% (G: 9.89% B: 0.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 23.42% (G: 2.00% B: 0.04%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 77.77% (G: 11.36% B: 0.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 22.23% (G: 2.37% B: 0.06%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:+0.612
Redouble:+1.295
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:+0.909 (-0.091)
Redouble/Take:+1.141 (+0.141)
Redouble/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28866686
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble: ± 0.004 (+0.904...+0.913)
Confidence Redouble: ± 0.008 (+1.133...+1.149)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 11 minutes 00 second

Number 2

- The blot on the ace point is brutal. Put this back into play anywhere not as a blot and it's a clear take.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 132
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=-AabB-BBCa-B-B---a-bbbbb-A:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 68.77% (G: 36.79% B: 0.66%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.23% (G: 6.71% B: 0.41%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.78% (G: 40.23% B: 1.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.22% (G: 6.27% B: 0.30%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.375
Double:+1.485
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.826 (-0.174)
Double/Take:+1.230 (+0.230)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 5184
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.007 (+0.819...+0.833)
Confidence Double: ± 0.014 (+1.216...+1.244)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 48 minutes

Number 3

- I made the 5pt OtB of course.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 149
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=---aB-E-BB--eB---d-e--A-A-:0:0:1:31:0:0:3:0:10
to play 31

1.Rollout122/21 6/3* eq: +0.408
Player:
Opponent:		 58.38% (G:22.65% B:0.72%)
41.62% (G:9.55% B:0.54%)		Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.396...+0.420)
Duration: 3 hours 00 minute
2.Rollout18/5 6/5eq: +0.401 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		 57.24% (G:25.12% B:0.73%)
42.76% (G:8.82% B:0.46%)		Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.391...+0.411)
Duration: 2 hours 03 minutes
3.Rollout124/21 22/21eq: +0.388 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		 58.71% (G:17.97% B:0.40%)
41.29% (G:5.85% B:0.25%)		Conf: ± 0.010 (+0.378...+0.398)
Duration: 2 hours 31 minutes
4.Rollout124/23 6/3* eq: +0.385 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		 57.73% (G:21.85% B:0.70%)
42.27% (G:9.44% B:0.47%)		Conf: ± 0.011 (+0.374...+0.396)
Duration: 2 hours 45 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 28491191
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

Number 4

- I played 16/9 OtB and didn't even consider what XGR+ rates as the best play, spread 'em.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 198
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=---a-AC-Cb-A-Ba--bbcbbBBA-:0:0:-1:43:0:0:3:0:10
to play 43

1.XG Roller+22/18 16/13eq: +0.951
Player:
Opponent:		 65.40% (G:31.93% B:3.07%)
34.60% (G:3.63% B:0.13%)
2.XG Roller+16/9eq: +0.944 (-0.007)
Player:
Opponent:		 64.67% (G:32.94% B:3.39%)
35.33% (G:3.63% B:0.13%)
3.XG Roller+22/15eq: +0.918 (-0.033)
Player:
Opponent:		 65.01% (G:30.95% B:2.81%)
34.99% (G:3.38% B:0.10%)

Number 5

- Easy pass with a monster racing lead and lots of attacking/gammoning potential.

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 169
Money session
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 127
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=a-aBBCC--Ab-c---Cbbbb--A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?


Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances: 65.20% (G: 42.04% B: 1.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.80% (G: 6.51% B: 0.37%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.06% (G: 44.33% B: 1.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.94% (G: 6.67% B: 0.28%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:+0.304
Double:+1.415
Cubeful Equities
No Double:+0.811 (-0.189)
Double/Take:+1.117 (+0.117)
Double/Drop:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 16447819
Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double: ± 0.008 (+0.803...+0.819)
Confidence Double: ± 0.017 (+1.100...+1.134)
Double Decision confidence: 100.0%
Take Decision confidence: 100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 40 minutes

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