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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Sunday, 13 March 2011, at 7:49 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/12/11 (Stick)

Like I said, I won't be doing the rollouts that I know will take an extensive amount of time so I will only provide the XGR+ analysis for them. The shorter ones/ones near the end of the game I will rollout to a certain extent.

Number 1

- Everyone got this one wrong.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 158 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=--bb-CC-CCa-----aa-bbb-bAB:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	68.63% (G: 32.84% B: 2.41%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	31.37% (G: 8.61% B: 0.57%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	70.00% (G: 32.67% B: 2.50%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	30.00% (G: 8.05% B: 0.55%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.373
Double:	+1.331
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.892 (-0.108)
Double/Take:	+1.091 (+0.091)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.026 (+0.866...+0.918)
Confidence Double:	± 0.033 (+1.058...+1.125)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 1 hour 14 minutes

---

Number 2

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 124 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 144 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=--BA-bD-B-B-b----bCd-cbA--:1:1:1:65:0:0:3:0:10
to play 65

1.	Rollout1	8/3 8/2	eq: -0.298
	Player: Opponent: 35.74% (G:7.41% B:0.26%) 64.26% (G:22.61% B:0.61%) Conf: ± 0.014 (-0.312...-0.284) Duration: 4 minutes 53 seconds
2.	Rollout1	23/18 10/4	eq: -0.344 (-0.046)
	Player: Opponent: 33.25% (G:5.60% B:0.21%) 66.75% (G:18.35% B:0.33%) Conf: ± 0.012 (-0.356...-0.332) Duration: 5 minutes 53 seconds
3.	Rollout1	18/7	eq: -0.371 (-0.074)
	Player: Opponent: 35.48% (G:8.56% B:0.42%) 64.52% (G:30.46% B:0.90%) Conf: ± 0.015 (-0.386...-0.356) Duration: 6 minutes 03 seconds
1 972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

---

Number 3

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 105 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 122 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=---b-CCBB-B--Ca-a--bc-d-b-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	70.86% (G: 7.76% B: 0.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	29.14% (G: 2.44% B: 0.02%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	71.35% (G: 7.54% B: 0.32%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	28.65% (G: 2.18% B: 0.03%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.417
Double:	+0.967
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.802 (-0.002)
Double/Take:	+0.803
Double/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.197)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.015 (+0.787...+0.817)
Confidence Double:	± 0.017 (+0.787...+0.820)
Double Decision confidence:	55.4%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 48 seconds

---

Number 4

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 169 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 157 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-b----EaC---cEAa-c-e----A-:0:0:1:62:0:0:3:0:10
to play 62

1.	XG Roller+	13/11 13/7*	eq: +0.163
	Player: Opponent: 54.06% (G:16.60% B:1.23%) 45.94% (G:12.88% B:0.70%)
2.	XG Roller+	24/22 14/8	eq: +0.146 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 54.06% (G:14.04% B:0.88%) 45.94% (G:12.23% B:0.35%)
3.	XG Roller+	24/22 13/7*	eq: +0.146 (-0.017)
	Player: Opponent: 53.65% (G:15.65% B:1.15%) 46.35% (G:12.56% B:0.55%)

---

Number 5

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 153 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 180 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=--a---E-Ca-AdB---d-e-BA--A:0:0:1:41:0:0:3:0:10
to play 41

1.	XG Roller+	Bar/24 13/9*	eq: -0.231
	Player: Opponent: 44.65% (G:12.28% B:0.53%) 55.35% (G:17.70% B:1.08%)
2.	XG Roller+	Bar/21 6/5	eq: -0.249 (-0.018)
	Player: Opponent: 44.59% (G:10.75% B:0.41%) 55.41% (G:18.35% B:0.81%)
3.	XG Roller+	Bar/24 6/2*	eq: -0.301 (-0.070)
	Player: Opponent: 42.93% (G:11.38% B:0.42%) 57.07% (G:17.68% B:0.95%)

---

Number 6

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 114 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 125 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=----BBCBBA-Ab--bAc-dd--A--:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	74.14% (G: 10.82% B: 0.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	25.86% (G: 2.72% B: 0.08%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	75.07% (G: 11.88% B: 0.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	24.93% (G: 2.63% B: 0.10%)
Cubeless Equities
No Double:	+0.483
Double:	+1.189
Cubeful Equities
No Double:	+0.860 (-0.140)
Double/Take:	+1.036 (+0.036)
Double/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Drop
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Double:	± 0.008 (+0.852...+0.868)
Confidence Double:	± 0.016 (+1.020...+1.052)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 8 minutes 43 seconds

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 3/12/11
  Stick -- Saturday, 12 March 2011, at 7:52 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/12/11
    Casper van der Tak -- Saturday, 12 March 2011, at 10:19 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/12/11
    Stein Kulseth -- Saturday, 12 March 2011, at 3:41 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/12/11
    Michael Depreli -- Saturday, 12 March 2011, at 4:56 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/12/11 Hmmm...
    Michael Depreli -- Saturday, 12 March 2011, at 5:10 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/12/11
    Lucas Bauer -- Saturday, 12 March 2011, at 5:36 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/12/11
    misja -- Saturday, 12 March 2011, at 6:17 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/12/11
    Timothy Chow -- Saturday, 12 March 2011, at 8:03 p.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Sunday, 13 March 2011, at 7:49 a.m.