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Rollouts

Posted By: Stick
Date: Tuesday, 15 March 2011, at 7:32 a.m.

In Response To: Daily Quiz 3/14/11 (Stick)

Number 1

- I played R here. I didn't think the spike in gammons from hitting would be so large.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 157 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 137 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=--b-B-DaCB--cC---c-d--b-A-:1:-1:1:63:0:0:3:0:10
to play 63

1.	Rollout1	13/7* 7/4	eq: +0.346
	Player: Opponent: 66.55% (G:20.96% B:1.09%) 33.45% (G:6.69% B:0.27%) Conf: ± 0.013 (+0.333...+0.359) Duration: 13 minutes 01 second
2.	Rollout1	24/15	eq: +0.335 (-0.011)
	Player: Opponent: 68.03% (G:15.25% B:0.80%) 31.97% (G:6.49% B:0.21%) Conf: ± 0.012 (+0.323...+0.347) Duration: 12 minutes 40 seconds
3.	Rollout1	24/21 13/7*	eq: +0.331 (-0.016)
	Player: Opponent: 65.96% (G:21.31% B:1.15%) 34.04% (G:7.89% B:0.31%) Conf: ± 0.014 (+0.317...+0.345) Duration: 14 minutes 02 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

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Number 2

- 3 ply hated my play, XGR+ didn't agree with my play, rollout confirms my play.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 170 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 132 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-a---bEBDa--bB-Bbc-c-a----:0:0:1:44:0:0:3:0:10
to play 44

1.	Rollout1	8/4(2) 6/2(2)	eq: +0.819
	Player: Opponent: 68.26% (G:22.55% B:0.75%) 31.74% (G:5.61% B:0.22%) Conf: ± 0.023 (+0.796...+0.842) Duration: 12 minutes 52 seconds
2.	Rollout1	15/11(2) 8/4(2)	eq: +0.797 (-0.022)
	Player: Opponent: 69.18% (G:19.23% B:0.66%) 30.82% (G:5.39% B:0.18%) Conf: ± 0.026 (+0.771...+0.823) Duration: 15 minutes 06 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

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Number 3

- Sans QF I don't think many would have played this OtB.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 141 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 137 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-a-aBBBBB--AcB----cdBba---:1:-1:1:51:0:0:3:0:10
to play 51

1.	Rollout1	8/7 8/3*	eq: +0.608
	Player: Opponent: 73.78% (G:27.71% B:0.96%) 26.22% (G:5.59% B:0.12%) Conf: ± 0.022 (+0.586...+0.630) Duration: 2 minutes 48 seconds
2.	Rollout1	11/5	eq: +0.557 (-0.051)
	Player: Opponent: 73.40% (G:20.92% B:0.68%) 26.60% (G:4.04% B:0.14%) Conf: ± 0.026 (+0.531...+0.583) Duration: 2 minutes 23 seconds
1 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

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Number 4

- 3 ply thought my play was a blunder.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 109 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 30 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-FaCaC---a---------bccbb--:2:1:1:21:0:0:3:0:10
to play 21

1.	Rollout1	5/3 1/0ff	eq: +1.144
	Player: Opponent: 86.22% (G:38.91% B:0.27%) 13.78% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.005 (+1.139...+1.149) Duration: 37.9 seconds
2.	Rollout1	3/2* 2/0ff	eq: +1.138 (-0.006)
	Player: Opponent: 82.49% (G:41.84% B:0.28%) 17.51% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) Conf: ± 0.003 (+1.135...+1.141) Duration: 40.1 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

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Number 5

- Demonstrating again what trash the 22pt anchor is.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 129 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 143 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=--aABBCB----b-Bb-cAcbbB---:1:-1:1:42:0:0:3:0:10
to play 42

1.	Rollout1	22/18 3/1	eq: -0.397
	Player: Opponent: 43.68% (G:11.34% B:0.31%) 56.32% (G:17.22% B:0.83%) Conf: ± 0.033 (-0.430...-0.364) Duration: 2 minutes 09 seconds
2.	Rollout1	18/14 3/1	eq: -0.457 (-0.059)
	Player: Opponent: 40.90% (G:9.21% B:0.24%) 59.10% (G:10.69% B:0.58%) Conf: ± 0.023 (-0.480...-0.434) Duration: 1 minute 42 seconds
3.	Rollout1	18/14 6/4	eq: -0.466 (-0.069)
	Player: Opponent: 41.61% (G:8.43% B:0.32%) 58.39% (G:12.40% B:0.45%) Conf: ± 0.030 (-0.496...-0.436) Duration: 2 minutes 00 second
1 324 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply

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Number 6

- Any minor tweak to positions like this can throw it into passville USA.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 80 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 90 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=-ABaBDCB-----a----a-ccbbbA:1:-1:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	77.93% (G: 2.43% B: 0.03%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	22.07% (G: 1.88% B: 0.06%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	76.99% (G: 2.95% B: 0.05%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	23.01% (G: 1.52% B: 0.03%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.564
Redouble:	+1.109
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.813 (-0.164)
Redouble/Take:	+0.978
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000 (+0.022)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.004 (+0.810...+0.817)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.010 (+0.968...+0.988)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 49.8 seconds

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Number 7

- The poor positioning of the spares almost gives us a take. A practical take in OtB play of course.

	is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 45 Money session Jacoby Beaver pip: 65 score: 0 is Player 1
XGID=aBCCBBB-----------A---cdc-:1:1:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout
No Double
Player Winning Chances:	78.83% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.17% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	78.55% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	21.45% (G: 0.00% B: 0.00%)
Cubeless Equities
No Redouble:	+0.577
Redouble:	+1.142
Cubeful Equities
No Redouble:	+0.969 (-0.031)
Redouble/Take:	+1.008 (+0.008)
Redouble/Drop:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Redouble / Drop
Rollout details
15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 21140344 Moves and cube decisions: 3 ply
Confidence No Redouble:	± 0.001 (+0.968...+0.970)
Confidence Redouble:	± 0.003 (+1.005...+1.010)
Double Decision confidence:	100.0%
Take Decision confidence:	100.0%
Duration: 18.9 seconds

Messages In This Thread

• Daily Quiz 3/14/11
  Stick -- Monday, 14 March 2011, at 10:22 a.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/14/11
    Michael Depreli -- Monday, 14 March 2011, at 12:19 p.m.
  • Daily Quiz 3/14/11
    Lucas Bauer -- Monday, 14 March 2011, at 4:01 p.m.
    • Daily Quiz 3/14/11
      Lucas Bauer -- Monday, 14 March 2011, at 4:09 p.m.
  • Rollouts
    Stick -- Tuesday, 15 March 2011, at 7:32 a.m.