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BGonline.org Forums
5a-10a, leader on roll, recube action?
Posted By: Iancho Hristov In Response To: 5a-10a, leader on roll, recube action? (Lucas Bauer)
Date: Tuesday, 15 March 2011, at 7:34 a.m.
maybe when we give here % of estimation is better to explain how we estimate this,if someone come and want to learn this, something as i estimate the position on 77% will not mean anything.
I'm not specialist on this kind of calculation but from what i learn from the Great Donkey(Stick) i will approach like this:
1. all numbers that will cover:
2-12 rolls+
16 43 from the 10 pt- 4 rolls
64 and 55 from the 13 pt-3 rolls
66 from 21 pt-1 roll
So all together count on 21 rolls.
To Calculate % of this we multiply the rolls by 2.8%, so 21 x 2.8%=58.8%, let's make it 60%. This we assume that when we cover next roll we gonna win the game. Let's says that out of this 60% when we cover we gonna loose 3-5%( i don't really know how much exactly).
If we don't cover now, the opponent can enter with 11 rolls, that is 31%, out of this he will win probably half 16%.
and we have left around 10% that are for not covering next roll and not entering next roll, out of those i guess 8-9% will be win.
So to summarize we have 57+16+9=82%.
Nowe we have to think about the % we need to redouble, that is easy to check just in Met and it is 77%, so this should be enough to double.
Correct me if i'm wrong and if i miss something.
For me is more interesting to see logic under taking decision, instead of announcing this position is this % so cube or no cube.
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