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BGonline.org Forums
Spot the difference! - RO
Posted By: poseidon In Response To: Spot the difference! - RO (poseidon)
Date: Friday, 18 March 2011, at 12:33 a.m.
As expected the rollout shows that there is no much difference in the percentages of games/gammons won/lost after the safe play as it pretty much leads to the same position.
What makes a big difference is the percentages and equity after pay now with 13/6. Trying to spot the differences I noticed the following:
1) In the first position after 13/6 and a hit from white (not 6-6) black has a problem as most of his entering number give white a direct shot to the 4 point blot from the bar. In the second position however white will not have such an advantage.
2) The most signifficant difference I found is all 8's that black has to play after a miss from white. In the first position 5-3 and 6-2 play clearly worse than in the second as the leave a double shot to white. In addition if black rolls 4-4, he has to leave a blot in the first position, but he doesn't in the second. For the same reason black wins more gammons in the second position, where after 53, 62 and 4-4 white is on the bar again a 5point board compared to the 4point board in the first.
3) After pay now and a miss, black has some pick and pass numbers (41,31,21,11) which can only be played safe in the second position (exception:11 which can be played similarly in both position). Note that those numbers are supposed to be bad as they cannot advance the checker from the 13 point!)
4) After 13/6 and a miss, white will have problems breaking the 7point(18point) in the second position but not that much in the first (e.g. with 5-5)
I spend about an hour trying to find the reasons that 52 can be so much different in two "twin" positinos. I don't know if those are the reasons, but I do now that I will NEVER find the right answer OTB and that this was one of the most suprising differences I have ever seen in bg.
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